Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations
Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination....
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2012-10, Vol.39 (19), p.n/a |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | n/a |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 19 |
| container_start_page | |
| container_title | Geophysical research letters |
| container_volume | 39 |
| creator | Owens, M. J. Usoskin, I. Lockwood, M. |
| description | Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in‐ (anti‐) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of10Be concentration, which are in‐phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti‐phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long‐term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.
Key Points
An explanation for the observed cosmic ray flux through the Maunder Minimum
Solar dynamo continues to cycle through grand solar minima
The open solar flux may plateau in cycle 24 even if sunspot number drops |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2012GL053151 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1125229423</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2788028561</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5116-61bee32dd3b74fa8c2e71b6d58aca480f1774d7da4063786370b13e636935a113</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kEFv1DAQhSMEEkvhxg-whJA4EOqxYzvhhgrNIqUtgiKO1qzjLC5OvNhJYf89breqEAcOoxmNvvc084riOdA3QFlzzCiwtqOCg4AHxQqaqiprStXDYkVpk2em5OPiSUpXlFJOOawKu7behbT7bqMzZAz94nF2YSJhIFv0aOa8NiGNuUXcJ9Iv0U1bso049SQFj5GMbnIjviWfMM3kZj0s8xItucbobs3S0-LRgD7ZZ3f9qPh6-uHyZF12F-3Hk3ddaQSALCVsrOWs7_lGVQPWhlkFG9mLGg1WNR1AqapXPVZUclXnohvgVnLZcIEA_Kh4dfDdxfBzsWnWo0vGeo-TDUvSAEww1lSMZ_TFP-hVWOKUr8sUgKqVUHWmXh8oE0NK0Q56F_Ovca-B6pvM9d-ZZ_zlnSkmg37IIRmX7jVMCtnQSmWOHbhfztv9fz11-7ljjWhkFpUHkUuz_X0vwvhDS8WV0N_OW71-_-WsuzxjuuV_AE7Yncw</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1111787578</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations</title><source>Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete</source><source>Wiley Online Library Free Content</source><source>Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Archive</source><source>EZB Electronic Journals Library</source><creator>Owens, M. J. ; Usoskin, I. ; Lockwood, M.</creator><creatorcontrib>Owens, M. J. ; Usoskin, I. ; Lockwood, M.</creatorcontrib><description>Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in‐ (anti‐) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of10Be concentration, which are in‐phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti‐phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long‐term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.
Key Points
An explanation for the observed cosmic ray flux through the Maunder Minimum
Solar dynamo continues to cycle through grand solar minima
The open solar flux may plateau in cycle 24 even if sunspot number drops</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053151</identifier><identifier>CODEN: GPRLAJ</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington, DC: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Astronomy ; Astrophysics ; Climate change ; Cosmic rays ; Earth ; Earth sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; Exact sciences and technology ; heliospheric magnetic field ; Magnetic fields ; Maunder Minimum ; Planetology ; Solar activity ; solar variability ; Space ; Sun ; sunspot number</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2012-10, Vol.39 (19), p.n/a</ispartof><rights>2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright American Geophysical Union 2012</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5116-61bee32dd3b74fa8c2e71b6d58aca480f1774d7da4063786370b13e636935a113</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5116-61bee32dd3b74fa8c2e71b6d58aca480f1774d7da4063786370b13e636935a113</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029%2F2012GL053151$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029%2F2012GL053151$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,1427,11493,27901,27902,45550,45551,46384,46443,46808,46867</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=26569047$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Owens, M. J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Usoskin, I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lockwood, M.</creatorcontrib><title>Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations</title><title>Geophysical research letters</title><addtitle>Geophys. Res. Lett</addtitle><description>Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in‐ (anti‐) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of10Be concentration, which are in‐phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti‐phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long‐term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.
Key Points
An explanation for the observed cosmic ray flux through the Maunder Minimum
Solar dynamo continues to cycle through grand solar minima
The open solar flux may plateau in cycle 24 even if sunspot number drops</description><subject>Astronomy</subject><subject>Astrophysics</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Cosmic rays</subject><subject>Earth</subject><subject>Earth sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>heliospheric magnetic field</subject><subject>Magnetic fields</subject><subject>Maunder Minimum</subject><subject>Planetology</subject><subject>Solar activity</subject><subject>solar variability</subject><subject>Space</subject><subject>Sun</subject><subject>sunspot number</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2012</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kEFv1DAQhSMEEkvhxg-whJA4EOqxYzvhhgrNIqUtgiKO1qzjLC5OvNhJYf89breqEAcOoxmNvvc084riOdA3QFlzzCiwtqOCg4AHxQqaqiprStXDYkVpk2em5OPiSUpXlFJOOawKu7behbT7bqMzZAz94nF2YSJhIFv0aOa8NiGNuUXcJ9Iv0U1bso049SQFj5GMbnIjviWfMM3kZj0s8xItucbobs3S0-LRgD7ZZ3f9qPh6-uHyZF12F-3Hk3ddaQSALCVsrOWs7_lGVQPWhlkFG9mLGg1WNR1AqapXPVZUclXnohvgVnLZcIEA_Kh4dfDdxfBzsWnWo0vGeo-TDUvSAEww1lSMZ_TFP-hVWOKUr8sUgKqVUHWmXh8oE0NK0Q56F_Ovca-B6pvM9d-ZZ_zlnSkmg37IIRmX7jVMCtnQSmWOHbhfztv9fz11-7ljjWhkFpUHkUuz_X0vwvhDS8WV0N_OW71-_-WsuzxjuuV_AE7Yncw</recordid><startdate>20121016</startdate><enddate>20121016</enddate><creator>Owens, M. J.</creator><creator>Usoskin, I.</creator><creator>Lockwood, M.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>American Geophysical Union</general><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20121016</creationdate><title>Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations</title><author>Owens, M. J. ; Usoskin, I. ; Lockwood, M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c5116-61bee32dd3b74fa8c2e71b6d58aca480f1774d7da4063786370b13e636935a113</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2012</creationdate><topic>Astronomy</topic><topic>Astrophysics</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Cosmic rays</topic><topic>Earth</topic><topic>Earth sciences</topic><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>heliospheric magnetic field</topic><topic>Magnetic fields</topic><topic>Maunder Minimum</topic><topic>Planetology</topic><topic>Solar activity</topic><topic>solar variability</topic><topic>Space</topic><topic>Sun</topic><topic>sunspot number</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Owens, M. J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Usoskin, I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lockwood, M.</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database (1962 - current)</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>ProQuest research library</collection><collection>ProQuest Science Journals</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>ProQuest advanced technologies & aerospace journals</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Engineering collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Owens, M. J.</au><au>Usoskin, I.</au><au>Lockwood, M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations</atitle><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle><addtitle>Geophys. Res. Lett</addtitle><date>2012-10-16</date><risdate>2012</risdate><volume>39</volume><issue>19</issue><epage>n/a</epage><issn>0094-8276</issn><eissn>1944-8007</eissn><coden>GPRLAJ</coden><abstract>Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in‐ (anti‐) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of10Be concentration, which are in‐phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti‐phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long‐term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.
Key Points
An explanation for the observed cosmic ray flux through the Maunder Minimum
Solar dynamo continues to cycle through grand solar minima
The open solar flux may plateau in cycle 24 even if sunspot number drops</abstract><cop>Washington, DC</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.1029/2012GL053151</doi><tpages>5</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0094-8276 |
| ispartof | Geophysical research letters, 2012-10, Vol.39 (19), p.n/a |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1125229423 |
| source | Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Wiley Online Library Free Content; Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Archive; EZB Electronic Journals Library |
| subjects | Astronomy Astrophysics Climate change Cosmic rays Earth Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology heliospheric magnetic field Magnetic fields Maunder Minimum Planetology Solar activity solar variability Space Sun sunspot number |
| title | Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-07T18%3A18%3A27IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Heliospheric%20modulation%20of%20galactic%20cosmic%20rays%20during%20grand%20solar%20minima:%20Past%20and%20future%20variations&rft.jtitle=Geophysical%20research%20letters&rft.au=Owens,%20M.%20J.&rft.date=2012-10-16&rft.volume=39&rft.issue=19&rft.epage=n/a&rft.issn=0094-8276&rft.eissn=1944-8007&rft.coden=GPRLAJ&rft_id=info:doi/10.1029/2012GL053151&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2788028561%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1111787578&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true |