Signal Extraction and Forecasting of the UK Tourism Income Time Series: A Singular Spectrum Analysis Approach
ABSTRACT We present and apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a relatively new, non‐parametric and data‐driven method for signal extraction (trends, seasonal and business cycle components) and forecasting of UK tourism income. Our results show that SSA slightly outperforms SARIMA and time‐varying‐...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of forecasting 2012-08, Vol.31 (5), p.391-400 |
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| container_end_page | 400 |
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| container_title | Journal of forecasting |
| container_volume | 31 |
| creator | Beneki, Christina Eeckels, Bruno Leon, Costas |
| description | ABSTRACT
We present and apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a relatively new, non‐parametric and data‐driven method for signal extraction (trends, seasonal and business cycle components) and forecasting of UK tourism income. Our results show that SSA slightly outperforms SARIMA and time‐varying‐parameter state space models in terms of root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error forecasting criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/for.1220 |
| format | Article |
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We present and apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a relatively new, non‐parametric and data‐driven method for signal extraction (trends, seasonal and business cycle components) and forecasting of UK tourism income. Our results show that SSA slightly outperforms SARIMA and time‐varying‐parameter state space models in terms of root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error forecasting criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0277-6693</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1099-131X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/for.1220</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JOFODV</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</publisher><subject>business cycle decomposition ; Business cycles ; Economic forecasts ; Error ; forecasting ; Forecasting techniques ; Income ; signal extraction ; Signalling ; singular spectrum analysis ; singular value decomposition ; Spectrum analysis ; Studies ; Time series ; Tourism ; tourism income ; United Kingdom</subject><ispartof>Journal of forecasting, 2012-08, Vol.31 (5), p.391-400</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</rights><rights>Copyright Wiley Periodicals Inc. Aug 2012</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4620-47d44f08c4c215a7e3fe7a15622743f10fb2af7799eba61d43868f890eb40e913</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4620-47d44f08c4c215a7e3fe7a15622743f10fb2af7799eba61d43868f890eb40e913</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2Ffor.1220$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2Ffor.1220$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Beneki, Christina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Eeckels, Bruno</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leon, Costas</creatorcontrib><title>Signal Extraction and Forecasting of the UK Tourism Income Time Series: A Singular Spectrum Analysis Approach</title><title>Journal of forecasting</title><addtitle>J. Forecast</addtitle><description>ABSTRACT
We present and apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a relatively new, non‐parametric and data‐driven method for signal extraction (trends, seasonal and business cycle components) and forecasting of UK tourism income. Our results show that SSA slightly outperforms SARIMA and time‐varying‐parameter state space models in terms of root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error forecasting criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</description><subject>business cycle decomposition</subject><subject>Business cycles</subject><subject>Economic forecasts</subject><subject>Error</subject><subject>forecasting</subject><subject>Forecasting techniques</subject><subject>Income</subject><subject>signal extraction</subject><subject>Signalling</subject><subject>singular spectrum analysis</subject><subject>singular value decomposition</subject><subject>Spectrum analysis</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Time series</subject><subject>Tourism</subject><subject>tourism income</subject><subject>United Kingdom</subject><issn>0277-6693</issn><issn>1099-131X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2012</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp10EFLHDEUB_BQWnBrC36EQC-9jM1LspNJb4u4rrgodFfsLWSzLxo7M9kmM-h--0aUFoVe8i4__u_lT8gRsGNgjH_zMR0D5-wdmQDTugIBP9-TCeNKVXWtxQH5mPM9Y0w1wCekW4Xb3rb09HFI1g0h9tT2WzqPCZ3NQ-hvafR0uEN6fUHXcUwhd_S8d7FDug7lWWEKmL_TGV0VPLY20dUO3ZDGjs5K8j6HTGe7XYrW3X0iH7xtM35-mYfken66PllUy6uz85PZsnKy5qySaiulZ42TjsPUKhQelYVpzbmSwgPzG269UlrjxtawlaKpG99ohhvJUIM4JF-fc8va3yPmwXQhO2xb22McswEADpLXkhX65Q29L78shxfFuFQgQTf_Al2KOSf0ZpdCZ9O-IPPUuym9m6feC62e6UNocf9fZ-ZXP177kAd8_Ott-mVqJdTU3FyemcWFFgu-vDEg_gB-ApF_</recordid><startdate>201208</startdate><enddate>201208</enddate><creator>Beneki, Christina</creator><creator>Eeckels, Bruno</creator><creator>Leon, Costas</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</general><general>Wiley Periodicals Inc</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201208</creationdate><title>Signal Extraction and Forecasting of the UK Tourism Income Time Series: A Singular Spectrum Analysis Approach</title><author>Beneki, Christina ; Eeckels, Bruno ; Leon, Costas</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c4620-47d44f08c4c215a7e3fe7a15622743f10fb2af7799eba61d43868f890eb40e913</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2012</creationdate><topic>business cycle decomposition</topic><topic>Business cycles</topic><topic>Economic forecasts</topic><topic>Error</topic><topic>forecasting</topic><topic>Forecasting techniques</topic><topic>Income</topic><topic>signal extraction</topic><topic>Signalling</topic><topic>singular spectrum analysis</topic><topic>singular value decomposition</topic><topic>Spectrum analysis</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Time series</topic><topic>Tourism</topic><topic>tourism income</topic><topic>United Kingdom</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Beneki, Christina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Eeckels, Bruno</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leon, Costas</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>Journal of forecasting</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Beneki, Christina</au><au>Eeckels, Bruno</au><au>Leon, Costas</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Signal Extraction and Forecasting of the UK Tourism Income Time Series: A Singular Spectrum Analysis Approach</atitle><jtitle>Journal of forecasting</jtitle><addtitle>J. Forecast</addtitle><date>2012-08</date><risdate>2012</risdate><volume>31</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>391</spage><epage>400</epage><pages>391-400</pages><issn>0277-6693</issn><eissn>1099-131X</eissn><coden>JOFODV</coden><abstract>ABSTRACT
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| ispartof | Journal of forecasting, 2012-08, Vol.31 (5), p.391-400 |
| issn | 0277-6693 1099-131X |
| language | eng |
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| source | Wiley Online Library - AutoHoldings Journals; EBSCOhost Business Source Complete |
| subjects | business cycle decomposition Business cycles Economic forecasts Error forecasting Forecasting techniques Income signal extraction Signalling singular spectrum analysis singular value decomposition Spectrum analysis Studies Time series Tourism tourism income United Kingdom |
| title | Signal Extraction and Forecasting of the UK Tourism Income Time Series: A Singular Spectrum Analysis Approach |
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