IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PHOMA LEAF SPOT OF COFFEE IN BRAZIL

The potential impact of global climate change on the spatial-temporal distribution ofphoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil was evaluated. Maps were prepared with the favorability of the climate to the occurrence of the disease in the current period and future. The future scenarios used were centered f...

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Veröffentlicht in:Interciencia 2012-04, Vol.37 (4), p.272-278
Hauptverfasser: Moraes, Wanderson Bucker, de Jesus, Waldir Cintra, Peixoto, Leonardo de Azevedo, Moraes, William Bucker, Coser, Sara Morra, Cecílio, Roberto Avelino
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container_end_page 278
container_issue 4
container_start_page 272
container_title Interciencia
container_volume 37
creator Moraes, Wanderson Bucker
de Jesus, Waldir Cintra
Peixoto, Leonardo de Azevedo
Moraes, William Bucker
Coser, Sara Morra
Cecílio, Roberto Avelino
description The potential impact of global climate change on the spatial-temporal distribution ofphoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil was evaluated. Maps were prepared with the favorability of the climate to the occurrence of the disease in the current period and future. The future scenarios used were centered for the decades of 2010-2030, 2040-2060, and 2070-2090 (scenarios A2 and B2). These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCM's) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Assuming the future scenarios outlined by the IPCC, a reduction will occur in the occurrence of climatic favorability ofphoma leaf spot in Brazil in both future scenarios (A2 and B2). As with the temporal distribution, the period of greatest risk ofphoma leaf spot will tend to diminish in future decades. These planned changes will be larger in the A2 scenario compared to the predicted scenario B2. Despite the decrease in the favorability ofphoma leaf spot in the country, some regions still present a potential risk of this disease. Furthermore, the increased frequency of extreme weather was not taken in to account. These will certainly influence the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on the phoma leaf spot in Brazil.
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title IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PHOMA LEAF SPOT OF COFFEE IN BRAZIL
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