A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon

The Lebanese Electric Power System (LEPS) has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill-operating infrastructure, and suffering from effects of political instability, huge debts, unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation. The upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical, financial, administrative and governance aspects of the system. In this paper, an energy policy for Lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling. The paper utilizes the Load Modification Technique (LMT) as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production, overall cost, technical/commercial losses and reliability. Scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business-as-usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector. Conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for Lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems. ► Evaluation methodology based on a probabilistic simulation tool is proposed. ► A business-as-usual scenario for a given study period of the LEPS was modeled. ► Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of the energy policy are modeled. ► Policy simulated and compared with business-as-usual scenarios of the LEPS. ► Results reflect usefulness of proposed methodology and the adopted energy policy.