Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies
Innovation is characterized by uncertainties, high risks, large investments and late returns on investment which make it a complex process. This is particularly true for sustainable innovation where market forces alone cannot be relied upon to realize the desired transitions. Insight in the dynamics...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Technological forecasting & social change 2012-03, Vol.79 (3), p.448-456 |
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| container_title | Technological forecasting & social change |
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| creator | Alkemade, Floortje Suurs, Roald A.A. |
| description | Innovation is characterized by uncertainties, high risks, large investments and late returns on investment which make it a complex process. This is particularly true for sustainable innovation where market forces alone cannot be relied upon to realize the desired transitions. Insight in the dynamics of such innovation processes is necessary in order to influence technological change toward a more sustainable direction. However, few instruments and indicators are available to assess the performance of emerging technological innovation systems. In this phase competition often takes place based on expectations rather than on technological performance. This paper therefore focuses on the expectation patterns of technological innovation systems in the exploratory phase through the analysis of the expectation dynamics of three emerging technologies in the field of sustainable mobility within the Netherlands: biofuels, hydrogen as a transport fuel and natural gas as a transport fuel. These technologies do not only compete with the current fossil-fuel based system but also with each other. We have collected over 5000 expectation events regarding these technologies for the period 2000–2008 and discuss the insights generated by the comparison of the observed expectation dynamics to theoretical patterns.
► Analyzes expectations about biofuels, natural gas and hydrogen as transport fuels. ► Compares the observed expectation patterns to theoretical patterns. ► Discusses the convergence of expectations as an indicator for policymakers. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.014 |
| format | Article |
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► Analyzes expectations about biofuels, natural gas and hydrogen as transport fuels. ► Compares the observed expectation patterns to theoretical patterns. ► Discusses the convergence of expectations as an indicator for policymakers.</description><subject>Alternative energy sources</subject><subject>Biofuels</subject><subject>Certainty</subject><subject>Expectation dynamics</subject><subject>Expectations</subject><subject>Fuels</subject><subject>Functions of innovation systems</subject><subject>Hydrogen</subject><subject>Hype cycles</subject><subject>Innovation systems</subject><subject>Innovations</subject><subject>Markets</subject><subject>Natural gas</subject><subject>Netherlands</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Sustainable development</subject><subject>Sustainable innovation</subject><subject>Technological Change</subject><subject>Technological Innovations</subject><issn>0040-1625</issn><issn>1873-5509</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2012</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BHHNA</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkE9LxDAQxYMouK5-BSmevLTONG2aXkQR_8GCHvQc0nS6pnSbNemKfnuzrF68eBpmeO_NzI-xU4QMAcVFn01k3jrnKcsBMQOZARZ7bIay4mlZQr3PZgAFpCjy8pAdhdADQMWlmLHLZz1N5MeQuC6hzzWZSU_WxT4GJrQiv7TjMgmbMGk76magZLttdINbWgrH7KDTQ6CTnzpnr3e3LzcP6eLp_vHmepGaosQp1SBk05m65LxDRKNrSQZEpQnbiguQIBqsQAhZ8Fa0cdjJqmhaLhGoLlo-Z-e73LV37xsKk1rZYGgY9EhuExRCziGXAvMoPfsj7d3Gj_E6Vec8L7AuqygSO5HxLgRPnVp7u9L-KyapLVXVq1-qaktVgVSRajRe7YwUv_2w5FUwlkZDrfWRnWqd_S_iG4QugyQ</recordid><startdate>20120301</startdate><enddate>20120301</enddate><creator>Alkemade, Floortje</creator><creator>Suurs, Roald A.A.</creator><general>Elsevier Inc</general><general>Elsevier Science Ltd</general><scope>6I.</scope><scope>AAFTH</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TB</scope><scope>7U4</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>BHHNA</scope><scope>DWI</scope><scope>F28</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>JQ2</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>WZK</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20120301</creationdate><title>Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies</title><author>Alkemade, Floortje ; Suurs, Roald A.A.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c451t-a068bfc9533f111ca98ec067ae1d7360806b17066843d6d1d7f874bd3810e94d3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2012</creationdate><topic>Alternative energy sources</topic><topic>Biofuels</topic><topic>Certainty</topic><topic>Expectation dynamics</topic><topic>Expectations</topic><topic>Fuels</topic><topic>Functions of innovation systems</topic><topic>Hydrogen</topic><topic>Hype cycles</topic><topic>Innovation systems</topic><topic>Innovations</topic><topic>Markets</topic><topic>Natural gas</topic><topic>Netherlands</topic><topic>Risk</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Sustainable development</topic><topic>Sustainable innovation</topic><topic>Technological Change</topic><topic>Technological Innovations</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Alkemade, Floortje</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suurs, Roald A.A.</creatorcontrib><collection>ScienceDirect Open Access Titles</collection><collection>Elsevier:ScienceDirect:Open Access</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Mechanical & Transportation Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts</collection><collection>ANTE: Abstracts in New Technology & Engineering</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Computer Science Collection</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Sociological Abstracts (Ovid)</collection><jtitle>Technological forecasting & social change</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Alkemade, Floortje</au><au>Suurs, Roald A.A.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies</atitle><jtitle>Technological forecasting & social change</jtitle><date>2012-03-01</date><risdate>2012</risdate><volume>79</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>448</spage><epage>456</epage><pages>448-456</pages><issn>0040-1625</issn><eissn>1873-5509</eissn><coden>TFSCB3</coden><abstract>Innovation is characterized by uncertainties, high risks, large investments and late returns on investment which make it a complex process. This is particularly true for sustainable innovation where market forces alone cannot be relied upon to realize the desired transitions. Insight in the dynamics of such innovation processes is necessary in order to influence technological change toward a more sustainable direction. However, few instruments and indicators are available to assess the performance of emerging technological innovation systems. In this phase competition often takes place based on expectations rather than on technological performance. This paper therefore focuses on the expectation patterns of technological innovation systems in the exploratory phase through the analysis of the expectation dynamics of three emerging technologies in the field of sustainable mobility within the Netherlands: biofuels, hydrogen as a transport fuel and natural gas as a transport fuel. These technologies do not only compete with the current fossil-fuel based system but also with each other. We have collected over 5000 expectation events regarding these technologies for the period 2000–2008 and discuss the insights generated by the comparison of the observed expectation dynamics to theoretical patterns.
► Analyzes expectations about biofuels, natural gas and hydrogen as transport fuels. ► Compares the observed expectation patterns to theoretical patterns. ► Discusses the convergence of expectations as an indicator for policymakers.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Elsevier Inc</pub><doi>10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.014</doi><tpages>9</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals; Sociological Abstracts |
| subjects | Alternative energy sources Biofuels Certainty Expectation dynamics Expectations Fuels Functions of innovation systems Hydrogen Hype cycles Innovation systems Innovations Markets Natural gas Netherlands Risk Studies Sustainable development Sustainable innovation Technological Change Technological Innovations |
| title | Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies |
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