Economic Forecasts with Bayesian Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model: Choosing Optimal Prior in Economic Downturn

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp economi...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Rīgas Tehniskās universitātes zinātniskie raksti. Scientific proceedings of Riga Technical university. 5. Sērija, Datorzinātne Datorzinātne, 2010-01, Vol.42 (Technologies of Computer Control), p.100-100
1. Verfasser:	Buss, Ginters
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng ; lav
Schlagworte:	Bayesian analysis Dependent variables Economics Inference Mathematical analysis Mathematical models Optimization Tightness
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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