Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity
We show that democratic change may be triggered by transitory economic shocks. Our approach uses within-country variation in rainfall as a source of transitory shocks to sub-Saharan African economies. We find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institu...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Econometrica 2011-05, Vol.79 (3), p.923-947 |
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| container_end_page | 947 |
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| container_title | Econometrica |
| container_volume | 79 |
| creator | Brückner, Markus Ciccone, Antonio |
| description | We show that democratic change may be triggered by transitory economic shocks. Our approach uses within-country variation in rainfall as a source of transitory shocks to sub-Saharan African economies. We find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. This result is consistent with the economic approach to political transitions, where transitory negative shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3982/ECTA8183 |
| format | Article |
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Ciccone, Antonio</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c6188-e1b4a3b5988980c280c6745179c5a32b48d68e03d03fcb0d9958743ecdfc5f563</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2011</creationdate><topic>Applications</topic><topic>Biology, psychology, social sciences</topic><topic>Democracy</topic><topic>Democratic theory</topic><topic>Democratization</topic><topic>Econometrics</topic><topic>Economic recessions</topic><topic>Economic shock</topic><topic>Economic transitions</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>Gross domestic product</topic><topic>Income estimates</topic><topic>Institutions</topic><topic>Instrumental variables estimation</topic><topic>Insurance, economics, finance</topic><topic>International political economy</topic><topic>Irrigation</topic><topic>Least squares</topic><topic>Mathematical analysis</topic><topic>Mathematics</topic><topic>Partial differential equations</topic><topic>Political change</topic><topic>Political economy</topic><topic>Polities</topic><topic>Probability and statistics</topic><topic>Rain</topic><topic>Sciences and techniques of general use</topic><topic>Statistical significance</topic><topic>Statistics</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>transitory economic shocks</topic><topic>Weather</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Brückner, Markus</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ciccone, Antonio</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>Econometrica</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Brückner, Markus</au><au>Ciccone, Antonio</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity</atitle><jtitle>Econometrica</jtitle><date>2011-05</date><risdate>2011</risdate><volume>79</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>923</spage><epage>947</epage><pages>923-947</pages><issn>0012-9682</issn><eissn>1468-0262</eissn><coden>ECMTA7</coden><abstract>We show that democratic change may be triggered by transitory economic shocks. Our approach uses within-country variation in rainfall as a source of transitory shocks to sub-Saharan African economies. We find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. This result is consistent with the economic approach to political transitions, where transitory negative shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.</abstract><cop>Oxford, UK</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.3982/ECTA8183</doi><tpages>25</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Econometrica, 2011-05, Vol.79 (3), p.923-947 |
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| source | JSTOR Mathematics & Statistics; JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing; Wiley Online Library All Journals |
| subjects | Applications Biology, psychology, social sciences Democracy Democratic theory Democratization Econometrics Economic recessions Economic shock Economic transitions Exact sciences and technology Gross domestic product Income estimates Institutions Instrumental variables estimation Insurance, economics, finance International political economy Irrigation Least squares Mathematical analysis Mathematics Partial differential equations Political change Political economy Polities Probability and statistics Rain Sciences and techniques of general use Statistical significance Statistics Studies transitory economic shocks Weather |
| title | Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity |
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