Early Holocene drought in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin caused hydrologic closure of Georgian Bay

Multiple proxies record aridity in the northern Great Lakes basin ~8,800–8,000 cal (8,000–7,200) BP when water levels fell below outlets in the Michigan, Huron and Georgian Bay basins. Pollen-climate transfer function calculations on radiocarbon-dated pollen profiles from small lakes from Minnesota to eastern Ontario show that a drier climate was sufficient to lower the Great Lakes, in particular Georgian Bay, to closed basins. The best modern climate analog for the early Holocene late Lake Hough stage in the Georgian Bay basin is Black Bass Lake near Brainerd MN. Modern annual precipitation at Brainerd is ~35% lower than at Huntsville ON, in the Georgian Bay catchment; warmer summers and colder, less snowy winters make Brainerd drier than the Georgian Bay snow belt. These values parallel transfer function reconstructions for the early Holocene from pollen records at five small lakes in the Georgian Bay drainage basin. Higher evaporation and evapotranspiration due to greater seasonality during the early Holocene produced a deficit in effective moisture in Georgian Bay that is recorded by the jack/red pine pollen zone that spanned ~8,800–8,200 cal (8,000–7,500) BP. This deficit drove late Lake Hough ~5 m below Lake Stanley in the Huron basin, following diversion of Laurentide Ice sheet meltwater from the Great Lakes basin. The level of Georgian Bay largely depends not on fluvial input from its own drainage basin, but rather from Lake Superior, where the early Holocene moisture deficit was greater. Reconstruction of paleoclimates in Minnesota, northwestern Ontario and Wisconsin produced a closed lake in the Superior basin, which removed the main water input to Georgian Bay. Once the inflow through the St. Marys River was reduced and inflow from other tributary streams was adjusted for isostatic and climatic differences, input was