Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China
China is a major developing country where farmers account for over 57% of the population. Thus, promoting a rural economy is crucial if the Chinese government is to improve the quality of life of the nation as a whole. To frame scientific and effective rural policy or economic plans, it is useful an...
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description | China is a major developing country where farmers account for over 57% of the population. Thus, promoting a rural economy is crucial if the Chinese government is to improve the quality of life of the nation as a whole. To frame scientific and effective rural policy or economic plans, it is useful and necessary for the government to predict the income of rural households. However, making such a prediction is challenging because rural households income is influenced by many factors, such as natural disasters. Based on the Grey Theory and the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm, this study first developed a high-precision hybrid model, DE–GM(1,1) to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China. By applying the DE algorithm to the optimization of the parameter λ, which was generally set equal to 0.5 in GM(1,1), we obtained more accurate forecasting results. Furthermore, the DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) was constructed by introducing the Rolling Mechanism. By analyzing the historical data of per capita annual net income of rural households in China from 1991 to 2008, we found that DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) can significantly improve the prediction precision when compared to traditional models.
► GM(1,1) is optimized using the DE algorithm and Rolling Mechanism. ► DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) combines Grey Theory, Rolling Mechanism and the DE algorithm. ► DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) is an ideal hybrid model for chaotic forecasting problems. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.omega.2011.10.003 |
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► GM(1,1) is optimized using the DE algorithm and Rolling Mechanism. ► DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) combines Grey Theory, Rolling Mechanism and the DE algorithm. ► DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) is an ideal hybrid model for chaotic forecasting problems.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0305-0483</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-5274</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2011.10.003</identifier><identifier>CODEN: OMEGA6</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Kidlington: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>1) Parameter optimization Differential Evolution algorithm Rolling Mechanism ; Algorithms ; Applied sciences ; Differential Evolution algorithm ; Economic policy ; Exact sciences and technology ; Family income ; GM(1 ; GM(1,1) ; Households ; Mathematical programming ; Net income ; Operational research and scientific management ; Operational research. Management science ; Optimization algorithms ; Parameter optimization ; Per capita ; Quality of life ; Rolling Mechanism ; Rural areas ; Studies</subject><ispartof>Omega (Oxford), 2012-10, Vol.40 (5), p.525-532</ispartof><rights>2011 Elsevier Ltd</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright Pergamon Press Inc. Oct 2012</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c458t-8435487d06b8d23b3b2bbd84022a1dfe26ce4df7c47ffd0202c64016e87ad02a3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c458t-8435487d06b8d23b3b2bbd84022a1dfe26ce4df7c47ffd0202c64016e87ad02a3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2011.10.003$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,3550,4008,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=25651237$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejomega/v_3a40_3ay_3a2012_3ai_3a5_3ap_3a525-532.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Ze</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Jianzhou</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Jing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Su, Zhongyue</creatorcontrib><title>Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China</title><title>Omega (Oxford)</title><description>China is a major developing country where farmers account for over 57% of the population. Thus, promoting a rural economy is crucial if the Chinese government is to improve the quality of life of the nation as a whole. To frame scientific and effective rural policy or economic plans, it is useful and necessary for the government to predict the income of rural households. However, making such a prediction is challenging because rural households income is influenced by many factors, such as natural disasters. Based on the Grey Theory and the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm, this study first developed a high-precision hybrid model, DE–GM(1,1) to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China. By applying the DE algorithm to the optimization of the parameter λ, which was generally set equal to 0.5 in GM(1,1), we obtained more accurate forecasting results. Furthermore, the DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) was constructed by introducing the Rolling Mechanism. By analyzing the historical data of per capita annual net income of rural households in China from 1991 to 2008, we found that DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) can significantly improve the prediction precision when compared to traditional models.
► GM(1,1) is optimized using the DE algorithm and Rolling Mechanism. ► DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) combines Grey Theory, Rolling Mechanism and the DE algorithm. ► DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) is an ideal hybrid model for chaotic forecasting problems.</description><subject>1) Parameter optimization Differential Evolution algorithm Rolling Mechanism</subject><subject>Algorithms</subject><subject>Applied sciences</subject><subject>Differential Evolution algorithm</subject><subject>Economic policy</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>Family income</subject><subject>GM(1</subject><subject>GM(1,1)</subject><subject>Households</subject><subject>Mathematical programming</subject><subject>Net income</subject><subject>Operational research and scientific management</subject><subject>Operational research. Management science</subject><subject>Optimization algorithms</subject><subject>Parameter optimization</subject><subject>Per capita</subject><subject>Quality of life</subject><subject>Rolling Mechanism</subject><subject>Rural areas</subject><subject>Studies</subject><issn>0305-0483</issn><issn>1873-5274</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2012</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>X2L</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kU1v1DAQhiMEEkvhF3CxkDhm6498ceCAllKKKnGhZ8uxxxtHiR1sZ6XtT-BXM0uqHjmMRzN-3_HocVG8Z3TPKGuux32Y4aj2nDKGnT2l4kWxY10rypq31ctiRwWtS1p14nXxJqWRUso6KnbFn4fk_JEochvhTOZgYCJhyW52j2BIfyZfnbUQwWenJnJzCtOaXfBETccQXR5mkgOxIYJWKZM8AFkgEq0WlxVR3q_o8pCJ8xpXJMGSuEbsDWFNMITJJLwih8F59bZ4ZdWU4N1Tvioevt38Onwv73_e3h2-3Je6qrtcdpWoq641tOk7w0Uvet73pqso54oZC7zRUBnb6qq11lBOuW4qhARdq7BU4qr4sM1dYvi9QspyDGv0-KT8xHiHXBqKIrGJdAwpRbByiW5W8SwZlRfmcpT_mMsL80sTmaPrx-aKsIB-tgDAuIlPUqiK4nHGQCfH5DBqjOWSeS1rweWQZxz28WlPlbSabFReu_Q8lNdNzbhoUfd50wFCOzmIMmkHXoNx-C1ZmuD-u_RfG42zBA</recordid><startdate>20121001</startdate><enddate>20121001</enddate><creator>Zhao, Ze</creator><creator>Wang, Jianzhou</creator><creator>Zhao, Jing</creator><creator>Su, Zhongyue</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier</general><general>Pergamon Press Inc</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>K9.</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20121001</creationdate><title>Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China</title><author>Zhao, Ze ; Wang, Jianzhou ; Zhao, Jing ; Su, Zhongyue</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c458t-8435487d06b8d23b3b2bbd84022a1dfe26ce4df7c47ffd0202c64016e87ad02a3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2012</creationdate><topic>1) Parameter optimization Differential Evolution algorithm Rolling Mechanism</topic><topic>Algorithms</topic><topic>Applied sciences</topic><topic>Differential Evolution algorithm</topic><topic>Economic policy</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>Family income</topic><topic>GM(1</topic><topic>GM(1,1)</topic><topic>Households</topic><topic>Mathematical programming</topic><topic>Net income</topic><topic>Operational research and scientific management</topic><topic>Operational research. Management science</topic><topic>Optimization algorithms</topic><topic>Parameter optimization</topic><topic>Per capita</topic><topic>Quality of life</topic><topic>Rolling Mechanism</topic><topic>Rural areas</topic><topic>Studies</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Ze</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Jianzhou</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Jing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Su, Zhongyue</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><jtitle>Omega (Oxford)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Zhao, Ze</au><au>Wang, Jianzhou</au><au>Zhao, Jing</au><au>Su, Zhongyue</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China</atitle><jtitle>Omega (Oxford)</jtitle><date>2012-10-01</date><risdate>2012</risdate><volume>40</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>525</spage><epage>532</epage><pages>525-532</pages><issn>0305-0483</issn><eissn>1873-5274</eissn><coden>OMEGA6</coden><abstract>China is a major developing country where farmers account for over 57% of the population. Thus, promoting a rural economy is crucial if the Chinese government is to improve the quality of life of the nation as a whole. To frame scientific and effective rural policy or economic plans, it is useful and necessary for the government to predict the income of rural households. However, making such a prediction is challenging because rural households income is influenced by many factors, such as natural disasters. Based on the Grey Theory and the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm, this study first developed a high-precision hybrid model, DE–GM(1,1) to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China. By applying the DE algorithm to the optimization of the parameter λ, which was generally set equal to 0.5 in GM(1,1), we obtained more accurate forecasting results. Furthermore, the DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) was constructed by introducing the Rolling Mechanism. By analyzing the historical data of per capita annual net income of rural households in China from 1991 to 2008, we found that DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) can significantly improve the prediction precision when compared to traditional models.
► GM(1,1) is optimized using the DE algorithm and Rolling Mechanism. ► DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) combines Grey Theory, Rolling Mechanism and the DE algorithm. ► DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) is an ideal hybrid model for chaotic forecasting problems.</abstract><cop>Kidlington</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><doi>10.1016/j.omega.2011.10.003</doi><tpages>8</tpages></addata></record> |
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subjects | 1) Parameter optimization Differential Evolution algorithm Rolling Mechanism Algorithms Applied sciences Differential Evolution algorithm Economic policy Exact sciences and technology Family income GM(1 GM(1,1) Households Mathematical programming Net income Operational research and scientific management Operational research. Management science Optimization algorithms Parameter optimization Per capita Quality of life Rolling Mechanism Rural areas Studies |
title | Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China |
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