Performance of a Dynamic Initialization Scheme in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC)

A dynamic initialization scheme for tropical cyclone structure and intensity in numerical prediction systems is described and tested. The procedure involves the removal of the analyzed vortex and, then, insertion of a new vortex that is dynamically initialized to the observed surface pressure into the numerical model initial conditions. This new vortex has the potential to be more balanced, and to have a more realistic boundary layer structure than by adding synthetic data in the data assimilation procedure to initialize the tropical cyclone in a model. The dynamic initialization scheme was tested on multiple tropical cyclones during 2008 and 2009 in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific Ocean basins using the Naval Research Laboratory’s tropical cyclone version of the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-TC). The use of this initialization procedure yielded significant improvements in intensity forecasts, with no degradation in track performance. Mean absolute errors in the maximum sustained surface wind were reduced by approximately 5 kt for all lead times up to 72 h.