A Variance Explanation Paradox: When a Little is a Lot

Concerning a single major league at bat, the percentage of variance in batting performance attributable to skill differentials among major league baseball players can be calculated statistically. The statistically appropriate calculation is seriously discrepant with intuitions about the influence of...

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Veröffentlicht in:Psychological bulletin 1985-01, Vol.97 (1), p.129-133
1. Verfasser: Abelson, Robert P
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creator Abelson, Robert P
description Concerning a single major league at bat, the percentage of variance in batting performance attributable to skill differentials among major league baseball players can be calculated statistically. The statistically appropriate calculation is seriously discrepant with intuitions about the influence of skill in batting performance. This paradoxical discrepancy is discussed in terms of habits of thought about the concept of variance explanation. It is argued that percent variance explanation is a misleading index of the influence of systematic factors in cases where there are processes by which individually tiny influences cumulate to produce meaningful outcomes.
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subjects Analysis of Variance
Baseball
Biological and medical sciences
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Human
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Psychometrics. Statistics. Methodology
Statistical Analysis
Statistics. Mathematics
Variability Measurement
title A Variance Explanation Paradox: When a Little is a Lot
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