Evaluating the Enhanced Bathtub Model for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment in Table Bay, South Africa
ABSTRACT Coastal zones are susceptible to increasing pressures from urban development and natural hazards, such as storm events, climate change, and rising sea levels. The GIS‐based enhanced bathtub model (eBTM) enables the identification of areas at risk of flooding as a baseline for disaster manag...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Transactions in GIS 2024-12, Vol.28 (8), p.2775-2791 |
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| creator | Lück‐Vogel, Melanie van Coller, Frederick Joshua Williams, Lauren Lyn |
| description | ABSTRACT
Coastal zones are susceptible to increasing pressures from urban development and natural hazards, such as storm events, climate change, and rising sea levels. The GIS‐based enhanced bathtub model (eBTM) enables the identification of areas at risk of flooding as a baseline for disaster management and coastal adaptation. This study aims to establish the methodological robustness of the eBTM for coastal flood modeling, by analyzing eight sites flooded during a recent storm event in Table Bay, Cape Town by comparing eBTM outputs with observed flood extent data collected after the storm. The validation showed that for 74% of the 332 validation points the spatial modeling error was |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/tgis.13268 |
| format | Article |
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Coastal zones are susceptible to increasing pressures from urban development and natural hazards, such as storm events, climate change, and rising sea levels. The GIS‐based enhanced bathtub model (eBTM) enables the identification of areas at risk of flooding as a baseline for disaster management and coastal adaptation. This study aims to establish the methodological robustness of the eBTM for coastal flood modeling, by analyzing eight sites flooded during a recent storm event in Table Bay, Cape Town by comparing eBTM outputs with observed flood extent data collected after the storm. The validation showed that for 74% of the 332 validation points the spatial modeling error was < 6 m and for 56% below 3 m. The root mean square error for the model was 4.88 m, indicating an acceptable level of accuracy of the eBTM outputs for coastal risk assessments where more sophisticated models are unavailable.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1361-1682</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1467-9671</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/tgis.13268</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Climate change ; coastal flooding ; Coastal management ; Coastal zone ; Coastal zones ; Disaster management ; Emergency preparedness ; enhanced bathtub model ; Environmental risk ; Error analysis ; Flood management ; Floods ; Geographical information systems ; GIS modeling ; Hazard assessment ; Hazard identification ; inundation ; Mathematical models ; Modelling ; Risk assessment ; Sea level changes ; Sea level rise ; South Africa ; Storms ; Urban development ; Urbanization</subject><ispartof>Transactions in GIS, 2024-12, Vol.28 (8), p.2775-2791</ispartof><rights>2024 The Author(s). published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>2024. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c1908-88e44bf5f5244b8c0b010a15bb1d8b0205aa8f5fe4e622ba7e846213a35afb9b3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-2683-4938 ; 0000-0001-6749-0516</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Ftgis.13268$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Ftgis.13268$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,1412,27905,27906,45555,45556</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Lück‐Vogel, Melanie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Coller, Frederick Joshua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Williams, Lauren Lyn</creatorcontrib><title>Evaluating the Enhanced Bathtub Model for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment in Table Bay, South Africa</title><title>Transactions in GIS</title><description>ABSTRACT
Coastal zones are susceptible to increasing pressures from urban development and natural hazards, such as storm events, climate change, and rising sea levels. The GIS‐based enhanced bathtub model (eBTM) enables the identification of areas at risk of flooding as a baseline for disaster management and coastal adaptation. This study aims to establish the methodological robustness of the eBTM for coastal flood modeling, by analyzing eight sites flooded during a recent storm event in Table Bay, Cape Town by comparing eBTM outputs with observed flood extent data collected after the storm. The validation showed that for 74% of the 332 validation points the spatial modeling error was < 6 m and for 56% below 3 m. 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Coastal zones are susceptible to increasing pressures from urban development and natural hazards, such as storm events, climate change, and rising sea levels. The GIS‐based enhanced bathtub model (eBTM) enables the identification of areas at risk of flooding as a baseline for disaster management and coastal adaptation. This study aims to establish the methodological robustness of the eBTM for coastal flood modeling, by analyzing eight sites flooded during a recent storm event in Table Bay, Cape Town by comparing eBTM outputs with observed flood extent data collected after the storm. The validation showed that for 74% of the 332 validation points the spatial modeling error was < 6 m and for 56% below 3 m. The root mean square error for the model was 4.88 m, indicating an acceptable level of accuracy of the eBTM outputs for coastal risk assessments where more sophisticated models are unavailable.</abstract><cop>Oxford</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.1111/tgis.13268</doi><tpages>17</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2683-4938</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6749-0516</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete |
| subjects | Climate change coastal flooding Coastal management Coastal zone Coastal zones Disaster management Emergency preparedness enhanced bathtub model Environmental risk Error analysis Flood management Floods Geographical information systems GIS modeling Hazard assessment Hazard identification inundation Mathematical models Modelling Risk assessment Sea level changes Sea level rise South Africa Storms Urban development Urbanization |
| title | Evaluating the Enhanced Bathtub Model for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment in Table Bay, South Africa |
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