Two methods to analyze radial diffusion ensembles: The perils of space- and time-dependent diffusion

Particle dynamics in Earth's outer radiation belt can be modeled using a diffusion framework, where large-scale electron movements are captured by a diffusion equation across a single adiabatic invariant, L*(L). While ensemble models are promoted to represent physical uncertainty, as yet there is no validated method to analyze radiation belt ensembles. Comparisons are complicated by the domain dependent diffusion, since diffusion coefficient DLL is dependent on L. We derive two tools to analyze ensemble members: time to monotonicity tm and mass/energy moment quantities N,E. We find that the Jacobian ( 1/L2) is necessary for radiation belt error metrics. Components of ∂E/∂t are explicitly calculated to compare the effects of outer and inner boundary conditions, and loss, on the ongoing diffusion. Using tm, N, and E, we find that: (a) different physically motivated choices of outer boundary condition and location result in different final states and different rates of evolution; (b) the gradients of the particle distribution affect evolution more significantly than DLL; (c) the enhancement location, and the amount of initial background particles, are both significant factors determining system evolution; (d) loss from pitch-angle scattering is generally dominant; it mitigates but does not remove the influence of both initial conditions and outer boundary settings, which are due to the L-dependence of DLL. We anticipate that this study will promote renewed focus on the distribution gradients, on the location and nature of the outer boundary in radiation belt modeling, and provide a foundation for systematic ensemble modeling.