Climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the Zagora Oasis, southern Morocco: a time series analysis and projection to 2050

The Zagora province in southern Morocco, characterized by its fragile Oasis-mountain-desert ecosystem, faces increasing threats from climate change. While the impacts of climate change on arid regions are widely acknowledged, location-specific studies analyzing future projections remain scarce, hindering the development of effective adaptation strategies. This study addresses this gap by examining historical temperature and precipitation trends in Zagora province from 1981 to 2021 and projecting their evolution to 2050 using time series modeling. An exponential trend model, demonstrating a high goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.825), was identified as most effective for temperature forecasting, projecting a significant increase in mean annual temperature of + 1.1 °C (with a 95% confidence interval ranging from − 0.16 °C to + 2.45 °C) and in maximum temperature of + 1.65 °C (95% CI: +0.49 °C to + 2.82 °C) by 2050. An ARIMA (0,1,1) model with a constant best captured the historical precipitation patterns, revealing a projected increase in annual rainfall of 51.24 mm (95% CI: -25.59 mm to + 163.93 mm), potentially intensifying the risk of floods and soil erosion. These findings underscore a significant warming trend and a shift towards a more variable precipitation regime in the region. These projected changes, combined with a potential increase in rainfall intensity, threaten the sustainability of water resources, soil stability, and agricultural productivity in this already vulnerable region. This study provides essential quantitative data for informing adaptation decisions, guiding the implementation of effective strategies to preserve the Zagora Oasis ecosystem and the vital services it provides.