Critical habitats: climate change and habitat loss as drivers of change in the geographic ranges of Neotropical woodcreepers (Aves: Furnariidae) in Mexico

Changes in climate and land cover have substantially modified the geographic range of several species, particularly those with specific ecological requirements, such as woodcreepers. Most woodcreeper species are associated with primary humid tropical forests due to their feeding and nesting habits, which depend on tree bark for foraging and locating nest cavities. We used species distribution models to analyze the effects of climate change (CC) until 2050 and land-use change (to detect primary habitat loss [PHL]) on the suitability areas of 15 woodcreeper species across Mexico. Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios show that by 2050, the projected suitability areas for these species will tend to be reduced by 60% and 74%, respectively. When we consider past changes in PHL for woodcreepers’ ranges were factored into CC future scenarios, suitability areas showed a reduction of up to 97% for restricted-range species, such as Xiphocolaptes emigrans and X. omiltemensis . Overall, the combined effects of CC and PHL on all woodcreeper species reduced their ranges, even if temperate, cloud, and evergreen forests showed slight future gain in suitability areas. Our findings revealed that most woodcreeper species could face severe declines. Given the ecological role of these birds and the at-risk status of several species, our findings should be considered when making conservation decisions in this important group.