A comparison between the exponential smoothing, methods of average and Box Jenkins techniques in forecasting the ageing population in Malaysia

In recent years, the number of older persons aged 65 years and older has been growing worldwide. Declining birth and death rates are said to be the causes of this new phenomenon. In Malaysia, the life expectancy at birth for male and females are 72.6 and 77.0 years old, respectively. With the increasing ageing population in Malaysia, it is important to predict the number in the future to better prepare for their needs. This study explored three types of forecasting techniques namely the exponential smoothing, the method of average and the Box-Jenkins techniques to predict the ageing population in Malaysia until 2030. Malaysia’s population by age groups from the year 1970 to 2019 was obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. This study found that the Box-Jenkins outperformed other methods with mean squared error values of 3,071.0439 and 47.8864 for people aged 65 years old and above and the overall population, respectively. Using Box-Jenkins, the number of ageing populations is predicted to be 33,331.77 people in 2030.