The overall stability of a partially unstable reservoir bank slope to water fluctuation and rainfall based on Bayesian theory
In geotechnical analysis, the factor of safety (FOS) is crucial for slope stability assessment. Traditional methods often overlook the nuances of partial slope instability. Accurately determining geotechnical parameters for FOS in complex simulations is challenging and resource-intensive. The limit...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Landslides 2024-08, Vol.21 (8), p.2021-2032 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 2032 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 8 |
| container_start_page | 2021 |
| container_title | Landslides |
| container_volume | 21 |
| creator | Zhang, Wengang Liu, Songlin Wang, Luqi Sun, Weixing He, Yuwei Wang, Yankun Sun, Guanhua |
| description | In geotechnical analysis, the factor of safety (FOS) is crucial for slope stability assessment. Traditional methods often overlook the nuances of partial slope instability. Accurately determining geotechnical parameters for FOS in complex simulations is challenging and resource-intensive. The limit equilibrium method (LEM), considering unit weight, cohesion, and internal friction angle, is used to address this. This study focuses on the Jiuxianping landslide, analyzing its stability and failure behavior. Utilizing the Bayesian theorem, the study back-analyzes shear strength parameters, considering partial instability and uncertainties in the Janbu corrected method. The parameters’ posterior distribution is determined using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) for efficient sampling. These parameters are then used for precise FOS calculation at the critical point of partial instability, corroborated by 2021 data from the Jiuxianping landslide. The study finds that while the entire slope remains stable, partial instability caused by long-term water erosion significantly lowers the FOS about 10.9%, highlighting its critical impact on overall slope stability. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10346-024-02250-8 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_3080880156</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>3080880156</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-a293t-26a50e8521ddb858b16a5067d21245b180579e4e63968dc7d63a40093f64d8703</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9UEtLxDAQLqLguvoHPAU8VydJm6ZHXXzBgpcVvIV0O3Wz1qYmqdKD_92sFb15GGb4XgNfkpxSOKcAxYWnwDORAsvisBxSuZfMqKAszSmV-783PB0mR95vAVgJvJwln6sNEvuOTrct8UFXpjVhJLYhmvTaBRPxkQzdjmqROPTo3q1xpNLdC_Gt7ZEESz50QEeadliHQQdjO6K7mjhtumYXXGmPNYnolR7RG92RsEHrxuPkIPIeT372PHm8uV4t7tLlw-394nKZalbykDKhc0CZM1rXlcxlRXeAKGpGWZZXVEJelJih4KWQ9bqoBdcZQMkbkdWyAD5Pzqbc3tm3AX1QWzu4Lr5UHCRICTQXUcUm1dpZ7x02qnfmVbtRUVC7mtVUs4o1q--alYwmPpl8FHfP6P6i_3F9AQyFgNI</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>3080880156</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>The overall stability of a partially unstable reservoir bank slope to water fluctuation and rainfall based on Bayesian theory</title><source>Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals</source><creator>Zhang, Wengang ; Liu, Songlin ; Wang, Luqi ; Sun, Weixing ; He, Yuwei ; Wang, Yankun ; Sun, Guanhua</creator><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Wengang ; Liu, Songlin ; Wang, Luqi ; Sun, Weixing ; He, Yuwei ; Wang, Yankun ; Sun, Guanhua</creatorcontrib><description>In geotechnical analysis, the factor of safety (FOS) is crucial for slope stability assessment. Traditional methods often overlook the nuances of partial slope instability. Accurately determining geotechnical parameters for FOS in complex simulations is challenging and resource-intensive. The limit equilibrium method (LEM), considering unit weight, cohesion, and internal friction angle, is used to address this. This study focuses on the Jiuxianping landslide, analyzing its stability and failure behavior. Utilizing the Bayesian theorem, the study back-analyzes shear strength parameters, considering partial instability and uncertainties in the Janbu corrected method. The parameters’ posterior distribution is determined using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) for efficient sampling. These parameters are then used for precise FOS calculation at the critical point of partial instability, corroborated by 2021 data from the Jiuxianping landslide. The study finds that while the entire slope remains stable, partial instability caused by long-term water erosion significantly lowers the FOS about 10.9%, highlighting its critical impact on overall slope stability.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1612-510X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1612-5118</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10346-024-02250-8</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Adaptive sampling ; Agriculture ; Bayesian analysis ; Bayesian theory ; Civil Engineering ; Critical point ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Equilibrium methods ; Geography ; Instability ; Internal friction ; Landslides ; Markov chains ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Natural Hazards ; Parameter uncertainty ; Parameters ; Probability theory ; Rainfall ; Safety factors ; Shear strength ; Slope stability ; Splines ; Stability analysis ; Technical Note ; Uncertainty analysis ; Water erosion</subject><ispartof>Landslides, 2024-08, Vol.21 (8), p.2021-2032</ispartof><rights>Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024</rights><rights>Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a293t-26a50e8521ddb858b16a5067d21245b180579e4e63968dc7d63a40093f64d8703</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-5108-250X</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10346-024-02250-8$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10346-024-02250-8$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Wengang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Songlin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Luqi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sun, Weixing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>He, Yuwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yankun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sun, Guanhua</creatorcontrib><title>The overall stability of a partially unstable reservoir bank slope to water fluctuation and rainfall based on Bayesian theory</title><title>Landslides</title><addtitle>Landslides</addtitle><description>In geotechnical analysis, the factor of safety (FOS) is crucial for slope stability assessment. Traditional methods often overlook the nuances of partial slope instability. Accurately determining geotechnical parameters for FOS in complex simulations is challenging and resource-intensive. The limit equilibrium method (LEM), considering unit weight, cohesion, and internal friction angle, is used to address this. This study focuses on the Jiuxianping landslide, analyzing its stability and failure behavior. Utilizing the Bayesian theorem, the study back-analyzes shear strength parameters, considering partial instability and uncertainties in the Janbu corrected method. The parameters’ posterior distribution is determined using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) for efficient sampling. These parameters are then used for precise FOS calculation at the critical point of partial instability, corroborated by 2021 data from the Jiuxianping landslide. The study finds that while the entire slope remains stable, partial instability caused by long-term water erosion significantly lowers the FOS about 10.9%, highlighting its critical impact on overall slope stability.</description><subject>Adaptive sampling</subject><subject>Agriculture</subject><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Bayesian theory</subject><subject>Civil Engineering</subject><subject>Critical point</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Equilibrium methods</subject><subject>Geography</subject><subject>Instability</subject><subject>Internal friction</subject><subject>Landslides</subject><subject>Markov chains</subject><subject>Monte Carlo simulation</subject><subject>Natural Hazards</subject><subject>Parameter uncertainty</subject><subject>Parameters</subject><subject>Probability theory</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Safety factors</subject><subject>Shear strength</subject><subject>Slope stability</subject><subject>Splines</subject><subject>Stability analysis</subject><subject>Technical Note</subject><subject>Uncertainty analysis</subject><subject>Water erosion</subject><issn>1612-510X</issn><issn>1612-5118</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9UEtLxDAQLqLguvoHPAU8VydJm6ZHXXzBgpcVvIV0O3Wz1qYmqdKD_92sFb15GGb4XgNfkpxSOKcAxYWnwDORAsvisBxSuZfMqKAszSmV-783PB0mR95vAVgJvJwln6sNEvuOTrct8UFXpjVhJLYhmvTaBRPxkQzdjmqROPTo3q1xpNLdC_Gt7ZEESz50QEeadliHQQdjO6K7mjhtumYXXGmPNYnolR7RG92RsEHrxuPkIPIeT372PHm8uV4t7tLlw-394nKZalbykDKhc0CZM1rXlcxlRXeAKGpGWZZXVEJelJih4KWQ9bqoBdcZQMkbkdWyAD5Pzqbc3tm3AX1QWzu4Lr5UHCRICTQXUcUm1dpZ7x02qnfmVbtRUVC7mtVUs4o1q--alYwmPpl8FHfP6P6i_3F9AQyFgNI</recordid><startdate>20240801</startdate><enddate>20240801</enddate><creator>Zhang, Wengang</creator><creator>Liu, Songlin</creator><creator>Wang, Luqi</creator><creator>Sun, Weixing</creator><creator>He, Yuwei</creator><creator>Wang, Yankun</creator><creator>Sun, Guanhua</creator><general>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5108-250X</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20240801</creationdate><title>The overall stability of a partially unstable reservoir bank slope to water fluctuation and rainfall based on Bayesian theory</title><author>Zhang, Wengang ; Liu, Songlin ; Wang, Luqi ; Sun, Weixing ; He, Yuwei ; Wang, Yankun ; Sun, Guanhua</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a293t-26a50e8521ddb858b16a5067d21245b180579e4e63968dc7d63a40093f64d8703</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><topic>Adaptive sampling</topic><topic>Agriculture</topic><topic>Bayesian analysis</topic><topic>Bayesian theory</topic><topic>Civil Engineering</topic><topic>Critical point</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Equilibrium methods</topic><topic>Geography</topic><topic>Instability</topic><topic>Internal friction</topic><topic>Landslides</topic><topic>Markov chains</topic><topic>Monte Carlo simulation</topic><topic>Natural Hazards</topic><topic>Parameter uncertainty</topic><topic>Parameters</topic><topic>Probability theory</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Safety factors</topic><topic>Shear strength</topic><topic>Slope stability</topic><topic>Splines</topic><topic>Stability analysis</topic><topic>Technical Note</topic><topic>Uncertainty analysis</topic><topic>Water erosion</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Wengang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Songlin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Luqi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sun, Weixing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>He, Yuwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yankun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sun, Guanhua</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><jtitle>Landslides</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Zhang, Wengang</au><au>Liu, Songlin</au><au>Wang, Luqi</au><au>Sun, Weixing</au><au>He, Yuwei</au><au>Wang, Yankun</au><au>Sun, Guanhua</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>The overall stability of a partially unstable reservoir bank slope to water fluctuation and rainfall based on Bayesian theory</atitle><jtitle>Landslides</jtitle><stitle>Landslides</stitle><date>2024-08-01</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>21</volume><issue>8</issue><spage>2021</spage><epage>2032</epage><pages>2021-2032</pages><issn>1612-510X</issn><eissn>1612-5118</eissn><abstract>In geotechnical analysis, the factor of safety (FOS) is crucial for slope stability assessment. Traditional methods often overlook the nuances of partial slope instability. Accurately determining geotechnical parameters for FOS in complex simulations is challenging and resource-intensive. The limit equilibrium method (LEM), considering unit weight, cohesion, and internal friction angle, is used to address this. This study focuses on the Jiuxianping landslide, analyzing its stability and failure behavior. Utilizing the Bayesian theorem, the study back-analyzes shear strength parameters, considering partial instability and uncertainties in the Janbu corrected method. The parameters’ posterior distribution is determined using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) for efficient sampling. These parameters are then used for precise FOS calculation at the critical point of partial instability, corroborated by 2021 data from the Jiuxianping landslide. The study finds that while the entire slope remains stable, partial instability caused by long-term water erosion significantly lowers the FOS about 10.9%, highlighting its critical impact on overall slope stability.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><doi>10.1007/s10346-024-02250-8</doi><tpages>12</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5108-250X</orcidid></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1612-510X |
| ispartof | Landslides, 2024-08, Vol.21 (8), p.2021-2032 |
| issn | 1612-510X 1612-5118 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_3080880156 |
| source | Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals |
| subjects | Adaptive sampling Agriculture Bayesian analysis Bayesian theory Civil Engineering Critical point Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Equilibrium methods Geography Instability Internal friction Landslides Markov chains Monte Carlo simulation Natural Hazards Parameter uncertainty Parameters Probability theory Rainfall Safety factors Shear strength Slope stability Splines Stability analysis Technical Note Uncertainty analysis Water erosion |
| title | The overall stability of a partially unstable reservoir bank slope to water fluctuation and rainfall based on Bayesian theory |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-16T00%3A18%3A03IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=The%20overall%20stability%20of%20a%20partially%20unstable%20reservoir%20bank%20slope%20to%20water%20fluctuation%20and%20rainfall%20based%20on%20Bayesian%20theory&rft.jtitle=Landslides&rft.au=Zhang,%20Wengang&rft.date=2024-08-01&rft.volume=21&rft.issue=8&rft.spage=2021&rft.epage=2032&rft.pages=2021-2032&rft.issn=1612-510X&rft.eissn=1612-5118&rft_id=info:doi/10.1007/s10346-024-02250-8&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E3080880156%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=3080880156&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true |