Exploring potential diffusion pathways of biorefinery innovations—An agent‐based simulation approach for facilitating shared value creation

In many European countries with plentiful forest resources, novel forest‐based businesses play a key role in the transition from our current fossil‐based economy towards a circular bioeconomy. For example, kraft lignin, a by‐product from the pulping industry, is produced in large amounts globally. T...

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Veröffentlicht in:Business strategy and the environment 2024-07, Vol.33 (5), p.4652-4693
Hauptverfasser: Wenger, Julia, Jäger, Georg, Näyhä, Annukka, Plakolb, Simon, Krassnitzer, Paul Erich, Stern, Tobias
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container_issue 5
container_start_page 4652
container_title Business strategy and the environment
container_volume 33
creator Wenger, Julia
Jäger, Georg
Näyhä, Annukka
Plakolb, Simon
Krassnitzer, Paul Erich
Stern, Tobias
description In many European countries with plentiful forest resources, novel forest‐based businesses play a key role in the transition from our current fossil‐based economy towards a circular bioeconomy. For example, kraft lignin, a by‐product from the pulping industry, is produced in large amounts globally. To date, however, it is still only offered on the market by a small number of pulping companies. The successful innovation diffusion of related new technologies and businesses requires establishing a collective effort among multiple societal actors to motivate the sharing of value creation processes. In this paper, potential innovation diffusion pathways are modeled and simulated by means of an agent‐based approach (Biorefinery Products Innovation Diffusion model, BioPID). The paper investigates the conditions needed to encourage the diffusion of kraft lignin innovations as a (partial) replacement for fossil‐based feedstock in selected applications. The results reveal the basic mechanisms behind potential innovation diffusion pathways. The major barriers were found to be the high level of uncertainty surrounding the additional costs arising in lignin processing, the small number of lignin providers, and the presence of relatively homogeneous pricing strategies based on opportunity and basic preparation costs. The analysis of two product categories revealed different patterns in terms of innovation diffusion and potential greenhouse gas emissions. A novelty of BioPID is that it allows for iterative technology evaluation and technology foresight analysis of biorefinery projects (e.g., by combining techno‐economic, socio‐technical, and environmental aspects). This produces knowledge for diverse stakeholders involved in the lignin innovation ecosystem, thus enabling better communication on shared values and furthering innovation diffusion.
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subjects Agent-based models
agent‐based model (ABM)
Biorefineries
business ecosystem management
Companies
Cost analysis
Costs
Diffusion
Diffusion barriers
Ecosystems
Emissions
Environmental aspects
environmental impact analysis
Forest resources
Fossils
Greenhouse gases
Innovation diffusion
innovation diffusion pathways
Innovations
Lignin
lignin biorefinery
Pulping
Refining
shared value creation
Simulation
sustainability transition
Technological change
Technological forecasting
Technology
Technology assessment
techno‐economic analysis
Uncertainty
Value
Value creation
title Exploring potential diffusion pathways of biorefinery innovations—An agent‐based simulation approach for facilitating shared value creation
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