Daily stream temperature predictions for free-flowing streams in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Supporting sustainable lotic ecosystems and thermal habitats requires estimates of stream temperature that are high in scope and resolution across space and time. We combined and enhanced elements of existing stream temperature models to produce a new statistical model to address this need. Contrast...
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Veröffentlicht in: | PLOS water 2023-08, Vol.2 (8), p.e0000119 |
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description | Supporting sustainable lotic ecosystems and thermal habitats requires estimates of stream temperature that are high in scope and resolution across space and time. We combined and enhanced elements of existing stream temperature models to produce a new statistical model to address this need. Contrasting with previous models that estimated coarser metrics such as monthly or seasonal stream temperature or focused on individual watersheds, we modeled daily stream temperature across the entire calendar year for a broad geographic region. This model reflects mechanistic processes using publicly available climate and landscape covariates in a Generalized Additive Model framework. We allowed covariates to interact while accounting for nonlinear relationships between temporal and spatial covariates to better capture seasonal patterns. To represent variation in sensitivity to climate, we used a moving average of antecedent air temperatures over a variable duration linked to area-standardized streamflow. The moving average window size was longer for reaches having snow-dominated hydrology, especially at higher flows, whereas window size was relatively constant and low for reaches having rain-dominated hydrology. Our model’s ability to capture the temporally-variable impact of snowmelt improved its capacity to predict stream temperature across diverse geography for multiple years. We fit the model to stream temperatures from 1993–2013 and predicted daily stream temperatures for ~261,200 free-flowing stream reaches across the Pacific Northwest USA from 1990–2021. Our daily model fit well (RMSE = 1.76; MAE = 1.32°C). Cross-validation suggested that the model produced useful predictions at unsampled locations across diverse landscapes and climate conditions. These stream temperature predictions will be useful to natural resource practitioners for effective conservation planning in lotic ecosystems and for managing species such as Pacific salmon. Our approach is straightforward and can be adapted to new spatial regions, time periods, or scenarios such as the anticipated decline in snowmelt with climate change. |
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We combined and enhanced elements of existing stream temperature models to produce a new statistical model to address this need. Contrasting with previous models that estimated coarser metrics such as monthly or seasonal stream temperature or focused on individual watersheds, we modeled daily stream temperature across the entire calendar year for a broad geographic region. This model reflects mechanistic processes using publicly available climate and landscape covariates in a Generalized Additive Model framework. We allowed covariates to interact while accounting for nonlinear relationships between temporal and spatial covariates to better capture seasonal patterns. To represent variation in sensitivity to climate, we used a moving average of antecedent air temperatures over a variable duration linked to area-standardized streamflow. The moving average window size was longer for reaches having snow-dominated hydrology, especially at higher flows, whereas window size was relatively constant and low for reaches having rain-dominated hydrology. Our model’s ability to capture the temporally-variable impact of snowmelt improved its capacity to predict stream temperature across diverse geography for multiple years. We fit the model to stream temperatures from 1993–2013 and predicted daily stream temperatures for ~261,200 free-flowing stream reaches across the Pacific Northwest USA from 1990–2021. Our daily model fit well (RMSE = 1.76; MAE = 1.32°C). Cross-validation suggested that the model produced useful predictions at unsampled locations across diverse landscapes and climate conditions. These stream temperature predictions will be useful to natural resource practitioners for effective conservation planning in lotic ecosystems and for managing species such as Pacific salmon. Our approach is straightforward and can be adapted to new spatial regions, time periods, or scenarios such as the anticipated decline in snowmelt with climate change.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2767-3219</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2767-3219</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000119</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>San Francisco: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Air temperature ; Climate change ; Climatic conditions ; Cold ; Creeks & streams ; Ecosystems ; Geography ; Groundwater ; Hydrology ; Influence ; Intermittent streams ; Natural resources ; Predictions ; Salmon ; Seasonal variations ; Snowmelt ; Statistical methods ; Statistical models ; Stream discharge ; Stream flow ; Temperature requirements ; Variables ; Water temperature</subject><ispartof>PLOS water, 2023-08, Vol.2 (8), p.e0000119</ispartof><rights>This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication: https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (the “License”). 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The moving average window size was longer for reaches having snow-dominated hydrology, especially at higher flows, whereas window size was relatively constant and low for reaches having rain-dominated hydrology. Our model’s ability to capture the temporally-variable impact of snowmelt improved its capacity to predict stream temperature across diverse geography for multiple years. We fit the model to stream temperatures from 1993–2013 and predicted daily stream temperatures for ~261,200 free-flowing stream reaches across the Pacific Northwest USA from 1990–2021. Our daily model fit well (RMSE = 1.76; MAE = 1.32°C). Cross-validation suggested that the model produced useful predictions at unsampled locations across diverse landscapes and climate conditions. These stream temperature predictions will be useful to natural resource practitioners for effective conservation planning in lotic ecosystems and for managing species such as Pacific salmon. 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Fullerton, Aimee H. ; FitzGerald, Alyssa M. ; Holzer, Damon ; Jordan, Chris E.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c1709-10f840a6b962415bdc29f38ca8e3f9e8cc6474ad55c69c38f41cf199f24794a73</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2023</creationdate><topic>Air temperature</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climatic conditions</topic><topic>Cold</topic><topic>Creeks & streams</topic><topic>Ecosystems</topic><topic>Geography</topic><topic>Groundwater</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Influence</topic><topic>Intermittent streams</topic><topic>Natural resources</topic><topic>Predictions</topic><topic>Salmon</topic><topic>Seasonal variations</topic><topic>Snowmelt</topic><topic>Statistical methods</topic><topic>Statistical models</topic><topic>Stream discharge</topic><topic>Stream flow</topic><topic>Temperature requirements</topic><topic>Variables</topic><topic>Water temperature</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Siegel, Jared E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fullerton, Aimee H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>FitzGerald, Alyssa M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holzer, Damon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jordan, Chris E.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>Access via ProQuest (Open Access)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><jtitle>PLOS water</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Siegel, Jared E.</au><au>Fullerton, Aimee H.</au><au>FitzGerald, Alyssa M.</au><au>Holzer, Damon</au><au>Jordan, Chris E.</au><au>Dias, João Miguel</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Daily stream temperature predictions for free-flowing streams in the Pacific Northwest, USA</atitle><jtitle>PLOS water</jtitle><date>2023-08-30</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>2</volume><issue>8</issue><spage>e0000119</spage><pages>e0000119-</pages><issn>2767-3219</issn><eissn>2767-3219</eissn><abstract>Supporting sustainable lotic ecosystems and thermal habitats requires estimates of stream temperature that are high in scope and resolution across space and time. We combined and enhanced elements of existing stream temperature models to produce a new statistical model to address this need. Contrasting with previous models that estimated coarser metrics such as monthly or seasonal stream temperature or focused on individual watersheds, we modeled daily stream temperature across the entire calendar year for a broad geographic region. This model reflects mechanistic processes using publicly available climate and landscape covariates in a Generalized Additive Model framework. We allowed covariates to interact while accounting for nonlinear relationships between temporal and spatial covariates to better capture seasonal patterns. To represent variation in sensitivity to climate, we used a moving average of antecedent air temperatures over a variable duration linked to area-standardized streamflow. The moving average window size was longer for reaches having snow-dominated hydrology, especially at higher flows, whereas window size was relatively constant and low for reaches having rain-dominated hydrology. Our model’s ability to capture the temporally-variable impact of snowmelt improved its capacity to predict stream temperature across diverse geography for multiple years. We fit the model to stream temperatures from 1993–2013 and predicted daily stream temperatures for ~261,200 free-flowing stream reaches across the Pacific Northwest USA from 1990–2021. Our daily model fit well (RMSE = 1.76; MAE = 1.32°C). Cross-validation suggested that the model produced useful predictions at unsampled locations across diverse landscapes and climate conditions. These stream temperature predictions will be useful to natural resource practitioners for effective conservation planning in lotic ecosystems and for managing species such as Pacific salmon. 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subjects | Air temperature Climate change Climatic conditions Cold Creeks & streams Ecosystems Geography Groundwater Hydrology Influence Intermittent streams Natural resources Predictions Salmon Seasonal variations Snowmelt Statistical methods Statistical models Stream discharge Stream flow Temperature requirements Variables Water temperature |
title | Daily stream temperature predictions for free-flowing streams in the Pacific Northwest, USA |
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