Unveiling the Energy Transition Process of Xinjiang: A Hybrid Approach Integrating Energy Allocation Analysis and a System Dynamics Model

The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang), being a rapidly developing region and a comprehensive energy base, plays an important role in China’s low-carbon energy transition. This paper attempts to develop a hybrid approach integrating energy allocation analysis, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition, and a system dynamics (SD) model to identify the driving factors of the energy system’s changes during 2005–2020, and to analyze future scenarios of the energy system from 2020 to 2060. The results indicate that in 2005–2020, coal and electricity consumption increased sharply, due to the expansion of the chemical and non-ferrous metal industries. Meanwhile, the natural gas flow also expanded greatly because of the construction of the Central Asia pipeline and the increase in local production. In the baseline scenario, energy-related carbon emissions (ERCE) will peak in 2046 at 628 Mt and decrease to 552 Mt in 2060. With a controlled GDP growth rate and an adjusted industrial structure, ERCE will peak in 2041 at 565 Mt and decrease to 438 Mt in 2060. With a controlled energy intensity and an adjusted energy structure, ERCE will peak in 2039 at 526 Mt and decrease to 364 Mt in 2060. If all policy measures are adopted, ERCE will peak in 2035 at 491 Mt and decrease to 298 Mt in 2060.