Mapping African Swine Fever and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks along the Demilitarized Zone in the Korean Peninsula

The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) is one of the world’s most preserved habitats for wild animals and migratory birds. The area also plays a major role in the spread of infectious animal diseases, in particular, African swine fever (ASF) and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). These outbreaks threaten the livelihood of local livestock farms, not infrequently. In this paper, we explore these relatively under-researched diseases by modeling and mapping ASF and HPAI risks in tandem using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm. The results show robust predictive power with high area under the curve values, of 0.92 and 0.99, respectively. We found that precipitation from spring to early summer and solar radiation in winter were essential in explaining the potential distribution of ASF, but land use contributed little. Thus, understanding only wild boars’ habitat preferences may not be sufficient in preventing ASF epidemics. HPAI risks were shaped by precipitation and mean temperature from winter to spring and land use. Areas with high ASF and HPAI risks were primarily found in forest and agricultural lands, respectively. The DMZ included many high-risk areas, indicating that the DMZ could lead to a broader regional spread of ASF and HPAI in the peninsula. Thus, our results highlight the essential role of cross-border collaboration and the combination of environmental and epidemiological insights in strategies to control ASF and HPAI risks within and surrounding the DMZ.