Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers
California is one of the major uncertainty hotspots for climate change, as climate models have historically been split between projecting wetter and drier future conditions over the region. We analysed the future (mid‐century and end‐century) projections of California's winter precipitation cha...
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description | California is one of the major uncertainty hotspots for climate change, as climate models have historically been split between projecting wetter and drier future conditions over the region. We analysed the future (mid‐century and end‐century) projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and studied its respective model agreement in comparison to the previous CMIP5 projections. Over northern California more than two thirds of the models in each ensemble agree on wetter future conditions. However, over southern California both ensembles show highly uncertain precipitation changes, with model projections almost equally divided between wetter or drier conditions. Projected end‐century precipitation changes range from −30% to +70% in CMIP5 and −20% to +80% in CMIP6. The CMIP6 ensemble mean changes are generally wetter and show larger model disagreement compared to CMIP5. Distribution of year‐to‐year precipitation indicates more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, with some models suggesting that the five wettest years account for as much as ~55% of the 20‐year rainfall, and the five driest for as little as ~5%. Dynamically, both ensembles project weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, in line with the wetter mean conditions in CMIP6. In the western tropical Pacific we find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in CMIP6 that is not seen in CMIP5, and more El Niño than La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. More CMIP6 models also project an increase in ENSO events compared to CMIP5, and a stronger impact of ENSO on California's precipitation is found in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. These factors also contribute to larger model disagreement and more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6.
We analyse the future projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and 5 (CMIP5) to investigate the potential improvements in model agreement and the physical mechanisms responsible. CMIP6 models project wetter conditions, and show a larger disagreement compared to CMIP5, due to weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6. We also find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in the western tropical Pacific in CMIP6 not seen in CMIP5, and more CMIP6 models indicate an increase in ENSO events tha |
doi_str_mv | 10.1002/joc.8449 |
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We analyse the future projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and 5 (CMIP5) to investigate the potential improvements in model agreement and the physical mechanisms responsible. CMIP6 models project wetter conditions, and show a larger disagreement compared to CMIP5, due to weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6. We also find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in the western tropical Pacific in CMIP6 not seen in CMIP5, and more CMIP6 models indicate an increase in ENSO events than CMIP5.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0899-8418</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1097-0088</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/joc.8449</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</publisher><subject>California ; Climate change ; Climate models ; CMIP5 ; CMIP6 ; El Nino ; El Nino phenomena ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event ; ENSO teleconnection ; Future precipitation ; Hadley circulation ; Intercomparison ; La Nina ; Precipitation ; Precipitation change ; Rainfall ; Southern Oscillation ; Winter precipitation</subject><ispartof>International journal of climatology, 2024-06, Vol.44 (7), p.2207-2229</ispartof><rights>2024 Royal Meteorological Society</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c2549-bdfc8d30ef925b35bb69e1f64ed4ec962ac2719c7d07abbc6923f4dac89f1bb43</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-9129-1787</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2Fjoc.8449$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2Fjoc.8449$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,1417,27924,27925,45574,45575</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Petrova, Desislava</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tarin‐Carrasco, Patricia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sekulic, Aleksandar</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lukovic, Jelena</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reniu, Maria Gali</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rodo, Xavier</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cvijanovic, Ivana</creatorcontrib><title>Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers</title><title>International journal of climatology</title><description>California is one of the major uncertainty hotspots for climate change, as climate models have historically been split between projecting wetter and drier future conditions over the region. We analysed the future (mid‐century and end‐century) projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and studied its respective model agreement in comparison to the previous CMIP5 projections. Over northern California more than two thirds of the models in each ensemble agree on wetter future conditions. However, over southern California both ensembles show highly uncertain precipitation changes, with model projections almost equally divided between wetter or drier conditions. Projected end‐century precipitation changes range from −30% to +70% in CMIP5 and −20% to +80% in CMIP6. The CMIP6 ensemble mean changes are generally wetter and show larger model disagreement compared to CMIP5. Distribution of year‐to‐year precipitation indicates more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, with some models suggesting that the five wettest years account for as much as ~55% of the 20‐year rainfall, and the five driest for as little as ~5%. Dynamically, both ensembles project weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, in line with the wetter mean conditions in CMIP6. In the western tropical Pacific we find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in CMIP6 that is not seen in CMIP5, and more El Niño than La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. More CMIP6 models also project an increase in ENSO events compared to CMIP5, and a stronger impact of ENSO on California's precipitation is found in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. These factors also contribute to larger model disagreement and more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6.
We analyse the future projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and 5 (CMIP5) to investigate the potential improvements in model agreement and the physical mechanisms responsible. CMIP6 models project wetter conditions, and show a larger disagreement compared to CMIP5, due to weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6. We also find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in the western tropical Pacific in CMIP6 not seen in CMIP5, and more CMIP6 models indicate an increase in ENSO events than CMIP5.</description><subject>California</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>CMIP5</subject><subject>CMIP6</subject><subject>El Nino</subject><subject>El Nino phenomena</subject><subject>El Nino-Southern Oscillation event</subject><subject>ENSO teleconnection</subject><subject>Future precipitation</subject><subject>Hadley circulation</subject><subject>Intercomparison</subject><subject>La Nina</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Precipitation change</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Southern Oscillation</subject><subject>Winter precipitation</subject><issn>0899-8418</issn><issn>1097-0088</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp10D1PwzAQBmALgUQpSPwESywsKbbjJDYbiigUFZUBZsuf4JLGwU5A_fekLSvTnXTP3UkvAJcYzTBC5GYd9IxRyo_ABCNeZQgxdgwmiHGeMYrZKThLaY0Q4hyXE_A5H_ohWthFq33ne9n70EL9Idt3m6BvYS0b70JsvbyFddh0Mvo0iuBg_bx4KaBszb4rR9zbuAnGNjCN56TZz3yfoIn-28Z0Dk6cbJK9-KtT8Da_f60fs-XqYVHfLTNNCsozZZxmJkfWcVKovFCq5Ba7klpDreYlkZpUmOvKoEoqpUtOckeN1Iw7rBTNp-DqcLeL4WuwqRfrMMR2fClyVNK8IIiQUV0flI4hpWid6KLfyLgVGIldlOOWFrsoR5od6I9v7PZfJ55W9d7_Ams4dcM</recordid><startdate>20240615</startdate><enddate>20240615</enddate><creator>Petrova, Desislava</creator><creator>Tarin‐Carrasco, Patricia</creator><creator>Sekulic, Aleksandar</creator><creator>Lukovic, Jelena</creator><creator>Reniu, Maria Gali</creator><creator>Rodo, Xavier</creator><creator>Cvijanovic, Ivana</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</general><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9129-1787</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20240615</creationdate><title>Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers</title><author>Petrova, Desislava ; Tarin‐Carrasco, Patricia ; Sekulic, Aleksandar ; Lukovic, Jelena ; Reniu, Maria Gali ; Rodo, Xavier ; Cvijanovic, Ivana</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c2549-bdfc8d30ef925b35bb69e1f64ed4ec962ac2719c7d07abbc6923f4dac89f1bb43</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><topic>California</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>CMIP5</topic><topic>CMIP6</topic><topic>El Nino</topic><topic>El Nino phenomena</topic><topic>El Nino-Southern Oscillation event</topic><topic>ENSO teleconnection</topic><topic>Future precipitation</topic><topic>Hadley circulation</topic><topic>Intercomparison</topic><topic>La Nina</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>Precipitation change</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Southern Oscillation</topic><topic>Winter precipitation</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Petrova, Desislava</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tarin‐Carrasco, Patricia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sekulic, Aleksandar</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lukovic, Jelena</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reniu, Maria Gali</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rodo, Xavier</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cvijanovic, Ivana</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><jtitle>International journal of climatology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Petrova, Desislava</au><au>Tarin‐Carrasco, Patricia</au><au>Sekulic, Aleksandar</au><au>Lukovic, Jelena</au><au>Reniu, Maria Gali</au><au>Rodo, Xavier</au><au>Cvijanovic, Ivana</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers</atitle><jtitle>International journal of climatology</jtitle><date>2024-06-15</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>44</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>2207</spage><epage>2229</epage><pages>2207-2229</pages><issn>0899-8418</issn><eissn>1097-0088</eissn><abstract>California is one of the major uncertainty hotspots for climate change, as climate models have historically been split between projecting wetter and drier future conditions over the region. We analysed the future (mid‐century and end‐century) projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and studied its respective model agreement in comparison to the previous CMIP5 projections. Over northern California more than two thirds of the models in each ensemble agree on wetter future conditions. However, over southern California both ensembles show highly uncertain precipitation changes, with model projections almost equally divided between wetter or drier conditions. Projected end‐century precipitation changes range from −30% to +70% in CMIP5 and −20% to +80% in CMIP6. The CMIP6 ensemble mean changes are generally wetter and show larger model disagreement compared to CMIP5. Distribution of year‐to‐year precipitation indicates more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, with some models suggesting that the five wettest years account for as much as ~55% of the 20‐year rainfall, and the five driest for as little as ~5%. Dynamically, both ensembles project weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, in line with the wetter mean conditions in CMIP6. In the western tropical Pacific we find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in CMIP6 that is not seen in CMIP5, and more El Niño than La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. More CMIP6 models also project an increase in ENSO events compared to CMIP5, and a stronger impact of ENSO on California's precipitation is found in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. These factors also contribute to larger model disagreement and more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6.
We analyse the future projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and 5 (CMIP5) to investigate the potential improvements in model agreement and the physical mechanisms responsible. CMIP6 models project wetter conditions, and show a larger disagreement compared to CMIP5, due to weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6. We also find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in the western tropical Pacific in CMIP6 not seen in CMIP5, and more CMIP6 models indicate an increase in ENSO events than CMIP5.</abstract><cop>Chichester, UK</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</pub><doi>10.1002/joc.8449</doi><tpages>23</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9129-1787</orcidid></addata></record> |
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subjects | California Climate change Climate models CMIP5 CMIP6 El Nino El Nino phenomena El Nino-Southern Oscillation event ENSO teleconnection Future precipitation Hadley circulation Intercomparison La Nina Precipitation Precipitation change Rainfall Southern Oscillation Winter precipitation |
title | Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers |
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