What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning
This article investigates the spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban municipalities. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and nonlinear predictive models are applied, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods are used to interpret the shape of...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The Annals of regional science 2024-04, Vol.72 (4), p.1353-1382 |
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| container_title | The Annals of regional science |
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| creator | Bogusz, Honorata Winnicki, Szymon Wójcik, Piotr |
| description | This article investigates the spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban municipalities. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and nonlinear predictive models are applied, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods are used to interpret the shape of relationships between the dependent variable and the most important regressors. The support vector regression algorithm is found to yield the most accurate predictions of the number of migrants to the suburbs of Warsaw. In addition, we find that migrants choose wealthier and more urbanised municipalities that offer better institutional amenities and a shorter driving time to Warsaw’s city centre. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y |
| format | Article |
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| subjects | Algorithms Artificial intelligence Cities City centres Communism Dependent variables Economics Economics and Finance Energy consumption Environmental Economics Explainable artificial intelligence Geography Künstliche Intelligenz Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning Machine learning Microeconomics Migrants Migration Municipalities Original Paper Polen Prediction models Prognoseverfahren Regional/Spatial Science Suburban areas Suburbanisierung Suburbanization Suburbs Support vector machines Urban areas Urbanization Warschau |
| title | What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning |
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