On the Assessment of the Long-Term Relationship between the AZN/RUB and USD/RUB Rates against the Backdrop of Increasing Sanctions against Russia

The article examines the mutual influence of the AZN/RUB and USD/RUB exchange rates against the backdrop of increasing sanctions against Russia in the period from January 2, 2023, to September 6, 2023, (five-day indicators, 178 observations) using the error correction mechanism (ECM) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models taking into account structural shifts. Exact specifications of regression models have been determined, confirming that changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Russian ruble have a statistically weakly significant codirectional effect on the exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat to the Russian ruble. The rates of restoration of equilibrium after shock changes between the dependent and independent variables have been determined, as well as relationships with positive cointegrating coefficients, at which the trajectory of these rates leaves the equilibrium position and does not return to it after the influence of the shock in the previous period. The results obtained for different specifications show that due to the devaluation of the Russian ruble against the US dollar, there is currently no threat to the exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat against the Russian ruble.