Projected changes in heatwaves and its impact on human discomfort over India due to global warming under the CORDEX-CORE framework

Due to climate change, rapid warming and its further intensification over different parts of the globe have been recently reported. This has a direct impact on human health, agriculture, water availability, power generation, various ecosystems, and socioeconomic conditions of the exposed population....

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Veröffentlicht in:Theoretical and applied climatology 2024-04, Vol.155 (4), p.2775-2786
Hauptverfasser: Maharana, Pyarimohan, Kumar, Dhirendra, Das, Sushant, Tiwari, P. R., Norgate, Marc, Raman, Viswanathan Anantha Venkat
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container_issue 4
container_start_page 2775
container_title Theoretical and applied climatology
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creator Maharana, Pyarimohan
Kumar, Dhirendra
Das, Sushant
Tiwari, P. R.
Norgate, Marc
Raman, Viswanathan Anantha Venkat
description Due to climate change, rapid warming and its further intensification over different parts of the globe have been recently reported. This has a direct impact on human health, agriculture, water availability, power generation, various ecosystems, and socioeconomic conditions of the exposed population. The current study thus investigates the frequency and duration of heatwaves, human discomfort, and exposure of the human population to these extremes using the high-resolution regional climate model experiments under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) over India. We find that more than 90% of India will be exposed to uncomfortable warm nights by the end of the 21st century with the highest rise over western India, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Uttar Pradesh (UP), Punjab, and the Haryana region. States like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, eastern parts of MP and UP, and some parts of J&K will be the worst hit by the intense and frequent heatwaves and human discomfort followed by the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains under RCP8.5. Strict enforcement of the stringent policies on stabilization of population growth, improvement of local adaptive capacities, and economic status of the vulnerable population along with enforcing effective measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions are important to reduce human exposure to future heat stress. We demonstrate that a proper mitigation-based development (RCP2.6) instead of a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5) may help to reduce 50–200 heatwave days, 3–10 heatwave spells, and 10–35% warm nights over the Indian region. Consequently, this can avoid the exposure of 135–143 million population to severe discomfort due to extreme heat conditions by the end of the 21st century.
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subjects 21st century
Agriculture
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology
Discomfort
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Emission measurements
Emissions
Exposure
Extreme heat
Extreme high temperatures
Farm buildings
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Heat stress
Heat tolerance
Heat waves
Heatwaves
Human populations
Mitigation
Population density
Population dynamics
Population growth
Population studies
Regional climate models
Regional climates
Socioeconomics
Waste Water Technology
Water availability
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
title Projected changes in heatwaves and its impact on human discomfort over India due to global warming under the CORDEX-CORE framework
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