Repeat victimisation and the crime drop: evidence from Japan

It is well-established that some people and places are repeat victims of crime. It is equally well-established that crime in many countries has fallen considerably in recent decades—the so-called ‘international crime drop’. What is less clear is the relationship between repeat victimisation and the crime drop, and whether reductions in crime have produced a more or less equitable distribution of crime across people and places. This study uses data from four sweeps of a national victimisation survey (2007–2018) to explore the relationship between the trend and prevalence of (repeat) residential burglary and vandalism victimisation in Japan. Results indicate high levels of repeat victimisation: households burgled and/or vandalised twice or more made up less than 1% of all surveyed households but accounted for 17% of all burglaries and 24% of all vandalism incidents. Moreover, although the prevalence rate of residential burglary and vandalism was shown to fall over time (residential burglary = 2.9% in 2007–1.5% in 2018 and vandalism = 4.0% in 2007–1.7% in 2018%), both crime types were found to have become more concentrated. Our results are largely consistent with recent studies in Europe and reaffirm the value and fairness of crime prevention interventions being targeted at and tailored to previous victims of crime.