Assessment of Ecosystem Services and Exploration of Trade-Offs and Synergistic Relationships in Arid Areas: A Case Study of the Kriya River Basin in Xinjiang, China

This research focuses on the Kriya River Basin and analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem services (ESs) and their trade-offs and synergies, which are vital for regional ecosystem conservation and socio-economic sustainability. Utilizing land use data from 1990 to 2020 and predictive models for 2030 (PLUS for land use and InVEST for ESs), the study assesses four key ESs: water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), habitat quality (HQ), and carbon storage (CS). The findings indicate that land use changes from 1990 to 2020 have significantly impacted these services. WY showed a negative trend because of a reduction in precipitation, while increased grasslands enhanced SC, HQ, and CS. Projections for 2030 suggest increases in WY and SC, with increases of 10.27 × 108 m3 in WY and 0.216 × 108 t in SC, but slight decreases in HQ and CS due to urban land expansion. Therefore, land types that provide important ESs should be protected in future planning, and the expansion of construction land should be controlled in order to realize the goal of ecological conservation. Our study also reveals that while WY and CS share a subtle trade-off, they both synergize with SC and HQ. Strong synergies exist between SC and HQ as well as between SC and CS, indicating lesser concerns for trade-offs in future planning. This research provides valuable data support and scientific insight for sustainable development and ecological governance policies in the watershed.