Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia

Climate change has a potentially negative impact on the overall vitality of vegetation in both forested and agricultural areas. A comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate and vegetation across various land cover types holds significant importance from multiple perspectives. This research examined the current state of vegetation trends and their interplay with climate parameters, specifically temperature and precipitation. Additionally, it aimed to provide insights into the anticipated changes in these climate parameters in the future, across the entire area of the Republic of Serbia. The vegetation was observed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from AVHRR/NOAA 11 satellite for the vegetation season (May–October) from 1981 to 2021, while the climate data records used the examination of the relationship between climate indicators and vegetation were monthly mean 2m temperature and precipitation obtained from the ERA5-Land (from April to October). The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test implemented with the Sen's slope estimator and the Pearson correlation coefficient ( r ) was utilized to identify trends (for the NDVI and climate variables) and the strength of the correlation, respectively. To obtain the information of temperature and precipitation change in future (from 2071 to 2100), the ensemble mean of the eight climate models, for vegetation period and summer season (June–July–August) from the EURO-CORDEX database was used. Results show relatively high NDVI values (> 0.5) over the entire area and the statistically significant ( p