CMIP5 based past and future climate change scenarios over South Bihar, India
The present study has been carried out to investigate the past and future rainfall and temperature change scenarios over three locations (Patna, Gaya, and Bhagalpur) falling in two agro-climatic zones (IIIa and IIIb) of South Bihar, using rainfall and temperature records from the India Meteorologica...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of Earth System Science 2023-01, Vol.132 (1), p.8, Article 8 |
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| description | The present study has been carried out to investigate the past and future rainfall and temperature change scenarios over three locations (Patna, Gaya, and Bhagalpur) falling in two agro-climatic zones (IIIa and IIIb) of South Bihar, using rainfall and temperature records from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Global Climate Model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). It was observed that CMIP5 models exhibit either dry or wet bias in rainfall and warm or cool bias in temperature. Multi-model ensemble (MME) using large numbers of GCMs can produce more realistic climate information, at least at the local scale where a wide range of uncertainty is exhibited. Both model and observational records indicated moderate warming in the last century, although some models revealed higher warming. Rainfall in Patna and Gaya showed a declining trend during 1901–2015, whereas Bhagalpur has shown an increasing trend. Future projection of rainfall in CMIP5 GCMs indicated an increase of 0–25% annual rainfall in all three locations, whereas the pre-monsoon rainfall may increase at a higher rate, i.e., 0–40%, than the total annual rainfall towards the end of the 21st century. It is found that the rate of increase of annual and pre-monsoon rainfall during the 2090s could be ~2 times more than the 2030s in the study locations. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s12040-022-02016-7 |
| format | Article |
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It was observed that CMIP5 models exhibit either dry or wet bias in rainfall and warm or cool bias in temperature. Multi-model ensemble (MME) using large numbers of GCMs can produce more realistic climate information, at least at the local scale where a wide range of uncertainty is exhibited. Both model and observational records indicated moderate warming in the last century, although some models revealed higher warming. Rainfall in Patna and Gaya showed a declining trend during 1901–2015, whereas Bhagalpur has shown an increasing trend. Future projection of rainfall in CMIP5 GCMs indicated an increase of 0–25% annual rainfall in all three locations, whereas the pre-monsoon rainfall may increase at a higher rate, i.e., 0–40%, than the total annual rainfall towards the end of the 21st century. 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It was observed that CMIP5 models exhibit either dry or wet bias in rainfall and warm or cool bias in temperature. Multi-model ensemble (MME) using large numbers of GCMs can produce more realistic climate information, at least at the local scale where a wide range of uncertainty is exhibited. Both model and observational records indicated moderate warming in the last century, although some models revealed higher warming. Rainfall in Patna and Gaya showed a declining trend during 1901–2015, whereas Bhagalpur has shown an increasing trend. Future projection of rainfall in CMIP5 GCMs indicated an increase of 0–25% annual rainfall in all three locations, whereas the pre-monsoon rainfall may increase at a higher rate, i.e., 0–40%, than the total annual rainfall towards the end of the 21st century. It is found that the rate of increase of annual and pre-monsoon rainfall during the 2090s could be ~2 times more than the 2030s in the study locations.</description><subject>Agricultural production</subject><subject>Annual rainfall</subject><subject>Annual rainfall data</subject><subject>Atmosphere</subject><subject>Bias</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate change scenarios</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climatic zones</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Environmental studies</subject><subject>Future climates</subject><subject>Global climate</subject><subject>Global climate models</subject><subject>Industrial research</subject><subject>Intercomparison</subject><subject>Locations (working)</subject><subject>Monsoon rainfall</subject><subject>Monsoons</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Records</subject><subject>Research centers</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Space Exploration and Astronautics</subject><subject>Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Temperature changes</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Wind</subject><issn>0973-774X</issn><issn>0253-4126</issn><issn>0973-774X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kE9LxDAQxYMoqKtfwFPAq9VJ0jbNURf_LKwoqOAtTNOJu8varkkr-O2NVtCTh-HN4b0Z3o-xIwGnAkCfRSEhhwykTAOizPQW2wOjVaZ1_rz9Z99l-zGuAFRZabPH5tPb2X3Ba4zU8A3GnmPbcD_0QyDu1stX7JMusH0hHh21GJZd5N07Bf7QDf2CXywXGE74rG2WeMB2PK4jHf7ohD1dXT5Ob7L53fVsej7PnBKmz7w2pB1hWSNqg5hLUZEyzufSqLz0rqmIZFUYXTmokWqfJ7vwoAUWoEBN2PF4dxO6t4Fib1fdENr00kojTAFQaZVccnS50MUYyNtNSH3ChxVgv6jZkZpN1Ow3NatTSI2hmMypdPg9_U_qE1usbwA</recordid><startdate>20230109</startdate><enddate>20230109</enddate><creator>Das, Lalu</creator><creator>Bhowmick, Sayani</creator><creator>Meher, Jitendra Kumar</creator><creator>Mahdi, Syed Sheraz</creator><general>Springer India</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1523-9295</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20230109</creationdate><title>CMIP5 based past and future climate change scenarios over South Bihar, India</title><author>Das, Lalu ; Bhowmick, Sayani ; Meher, Jitendra Kumar ; Mahdi, Syed Sheraz</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c319t-f79e7cea6baa79aa4218e39cf429346fcd8ee285978c0baebf47ce1f071a50303</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2023</creationdate><topic>Agricultural production</topic><topic>Annual rainfall</topic><topic>Annual rainfall data</topic><topic>Atmosphere</topic><topic>Bias</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate change scenarios</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Climatic zones</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Environmental studies</topic><topic>Future climates</topic><topic>Global climate</topic><topic>Global climate models</topic><topic>Industrial research</topic><topic>Intercomparison</topic><topic>Locations (working)</topic><topic>Monsoon rainfall</topic><topic>Monsoons</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>Rain</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Records</topic><topic>Research centers</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Space Exploration and Astronautics</topic><topic>Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>Temperature changes</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Wind</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Das, Lalu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bhowmick, Sayani</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Meher, Jitendra Kumar</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mahdi, Syed Sheraz</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><jtitle>Journal of Earth System Science</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Das, Lalu</au><au>Bhowmick, Sayani</au><au>Meher, Jitendra Kumar</au><au>Mahdi, Syed Sheraz</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>CMIP5 based past and future climate change scenarios over South Bihar, India</atitle><jtitle>Journal of Earth System Science</jtitle><stitle>J Earth Syst Sci</stitle><date>2023-01-09</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>132</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>8</spage><pages>8-</pages><artnum>8</artnum><issn>0973-774X</issn><issn>0253-4126</issn><eissn>0973-774X</eissn><abstract>The present study has been carried out to investigate the past and future rainfall and temperature change scenarios over three locations (Patna, Gaya, and Bhagalpur) falling in two agro-climatic zones (IIIa and IIIb) of South Bihar, using rainfall and temperature records from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Global Climate Model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). It was observed that CMIP5 models exhibit either dry or wet bias in rainfall and warm or cool bias in temperature. Multi-model ensemble (MME) using large numbers of GCMs can produce more realistic climate information, at least at the local scale where a wide range of uncertainty is exhibited. Both model and observational records indicated moderate warming in the last century, although some models revealed higher warming. Rainfall in Patna and Gaya showed a declining trend during 1901–2015, whereas Bhagalpur has shown an increasing trend. Future projection of rainfall in CMIP5 GCMs indicated an increase of 0–25% annual rainfall in all three locations, whereas the pre-monsoon rainfall may increase at a higher rate, i.e., 0–40%, than the total annual rainfall towards the end of the 21st century. It is found that the rate of increase of annual and pre-monsoon rainfall during the 2090s could be ~2 times more than the 2030s in the study locations.</abstract><cop>New Delhi</cop><pub>Springer India</pub><doi>10.1007/s12040-022-02016-7</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1523-9295</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Agricultural production Annual rainfall Annual rainfall data Atmosphere Bias Climate change Climate change scenarios Climate models Climatic zones Earth and Environmental Science Earth science Earth Sciences Environmental studies Future climates Global climate Global climate models Industrial research Intercomparison Locations (working) Monsoon rainfall Monsoons Precipitation Rain Rainfall Records Research centers Simulation Space Exploration and Astronautics Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics Temperature Temperature changes Trends Wind |
| title | CMIP5 based past and future climate change scenarios over South Bihar, India |
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