Logic tree branches’ weights in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: the need to combine inter-subjective and propensity probability interpretations
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the primary method for determining the earthquake forces as input to structural seismic evaluation and design. Epistemic uncertainty has been incorporated into the PSHA process using a logic tree. One of the main challenges in using logic trees is dete...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of seismology 2023-12, Vol.27 (6), p.1035-1046 |
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| creator | Motaghed, Sasan Eftekhari, Nasrollah Mohammadi, Mohammad Khazaee, Mozhgan |
| description | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the primary method for determining the earthquake forces as input to structural seismic evaluation and design. Epistemic uncertainty has been incorporated into the PSHA process using a logic tree. One of the main challenges in using logic trees is determining ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and their branches’ weights. In this paper, regarding the different definitions of probability, the philosophy of GMPE selection and logic tree branches’ weight allocation in the PSHA is investigated. The results show that the classical and frequency definitions of probability are not applicable in the selection and weight allocation process. We suggest that the best way to allocate weight can be obtained by combining the inter-subjective and propensity probability definitions. To evaluate the effect of weight allocation on the PSHA results, PSHA was performed for a site in Tehran using different selection and weighting approaches. The results of the numerical example show up to a 50% variation in the spectral acceleration in the range of common building periods. We show that the issue of GMPE selection and weight allocation has not been adequately addressed in the current procedures of PSHA. So, it is necessary to develop specific agendas in this field. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10950-023-10177-1 |
| format | Article |
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Epistemic uncertainty has been incorporated into the PSHA process using a logic tree. One of the main challenges in using logic trees is determining ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and their branches’ weights. In this paper, regarding the different definitions of probability, the philosophy of GMPE selection and logic tree branches’ weight allocation in the PSHA is investigated. The results show that the classical and frequency definitions of probability are not applicable in the selection and weight allocation process. We suggest that the best way to allocate weight can be obtained by combining the inter-subjective and propensity probability definitions. To evaluate the effect of weight allocation on the PSHA results, PSHA was performed for a site in Tehran using different selection and weighting approaches. The results of the numerical example show up to a 50% variation in the spectral acceleration in the range of common building periods. We show that the issue of GMPE selection and weight allocation has not been adequately addressed in the current procedures of PSHA. So, it is necessary to develop specific agendas in this field.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1383-4649</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-157X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10950-023-10177-1</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Branches ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Earthquakes ; Geological hazards ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences ; Ground motion ; Hazard assessment ; Hydrogeology ; Logic ; Probability theory ; Seismic activity ; Seismic analysis ; Seismic hazard ; Seismology ; Statistical analysis ; Structural Geology ; Trees ; Weight</subject><ispartof>Journal of seismology, 2023-12, Vol.27 (6), p.1035-1046</ispartof><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a342t-76a6a7fc5f726853352f18808cd7c886ae594d5bff035acbac2c0e80b82a1dca3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a342t-76a6a7fc5f726853352f18808cd7c886ae594d5bff035acbac2c0e80b82a1dca3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10950-023-10177-1$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10950-023-10177-1$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,778,782,27907,27908,41471,42540,51302</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Motaghed, Sasan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Eftekhari, Nasrollah</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mohammadi, Mohammad</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Khazaee, Mozhgan</creatorcontrib><title>Logic tree branches’ weights in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: the need to combine inter-subjective and propensity probability interpretations</title><title>Journal of seismology</title><addtitle>J Seismol</addtitle><description>Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the primary method for determining the earthquake forces as input to structural seismic evaluation and design. 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So, it is necessary to develop specific agendas in this field.</description><subject>Branches</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Earthquakes</subject><subject>Geological hazards</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Ground motion</subject><subject>Hazard assessment</subject><subject>Hydrogeology</subject><subject>Logic</subject><subject>Probability theory</subject><subject>Seismic activity</subject><subject>Seismic analysis</subject><subject>Seismic hazard</subject><subject>Seismology</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Structural Geology</subject><subject>Trees</subject><subject>Weight</subject><issn>1383-4649</issn><issn>1573-157X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kcFqGzEQhpeSQN2kL9CToOdtRitrpe2tmDQpGHppIDcxq521ZexdVyOnOKe-RiBPlyeJYgdyy2lG8P0fGv6i-CLhmwQwFyyh0VBCpUoJ0phSfigmUpv81Ob2JO_KqnJaT5uPxSfmFQA0tlGT4nE-LoIXKRKJNuLgl8RP_x_EPwqLZWIRBpGWJLZxbLEN68Ap00yBN3ku8R5jJ3DA9Z4Dfz-gA1En0ij8uGnDQNmQKJa8a1fkU7ijjHcvvi0NHNL-TZ33A7uNlDCFceDz4rTHNdPn13lW3Py8_DO7Lue_r37NfsxLVNMqlabGGk3vdW-q2mqldNVLa8H6znhrayTdTDvd9j0ojb5FX3kgC62tUHYe1Vnx9ejNf_m7I05uNe5ivopd1YBtaqhBZao6Uj6OzJF6t41hg3HvJLiXFtyxBZdbcIcWnMwhdQxxhocFxTf1O6ln7p6QQQ</recordid><startdate>20231201</startdate><enddate>20231201</enddate><creator>Motaghed, Sasan</creator><creator>Eftekhari, Nasrollah</creator><creator>Mohammadi, Mohammad</creator><creator>Khazaee, Mozhgan</creator><general>Springer Netherlands</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>SOI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20231201</creationdate><title>Logic tree branches’ weights in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: the need to combine inter-subjective and propensity probability interpretations</title><author>Motaghed, Sasan ; 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Epistemic uncertainty has been incorporated into the PSHA process using a logic tree. One of the main challenges in using logic trees is determining ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and their branches’ weights. In this paper, regarding the different definitions of probability, the philosophy of GMPE selection and logic tree branches’ weight allocation in the PSHA is investigated. The results show that the classical and frequency definitions of probability are not applicable in the selection and weight allocation process. We suggest that the best way to allocate weight can be obtained by combining the inter-subjective and propensity probability definitions. To evaluate the effect of weight allocation on the PSHA results, PSHA was performed for a site in Tehran using different selection and weighting approaches. The results of the numerical example show up to a 50% variation in the spectral acceleration in the range of common building periods. 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| subjects | Branches Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earthquakes Geological hazards Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Ground motion Hazard assessment Hydrogeology Logic Probability theory Seismic activity Seismic analysis Seismic hazard Seismology Statistical analysis Structural Geology Trees Weight |
| title | Logic tree branches’ weights in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: the need to combine inter-subjective and propensity probability interpretations |
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