The interaction between electricity grid and HVAC systems in Iraq (In the light of system thinking)

Humans becomes dependent more and more on complex infrastructure systems. Given the enduring electricity problem in Iraq, this research is trying to explore the grid as a complex system making use of system thinking approach. The interaction between building cooling system and power outages and how that impact the grid demand and energy need estimation is the case study for system thinking approach. During summer, the Iraqi electricity grid only supplies citizens with electricity for 12 hours a day. Those 12 hours are comprised of a sequence of two hours of electricity supply, followed by two hours of outage, followed by two hours of supply (and so on). The high level of consumption during the limited hours when electricity is available can lead to the incorrect estimation of the amount of electricity needed to meet the demand for power. The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity estimates that electricity generation needs to be doubled to meet the country’s electricity needs. To investigate this issue, an energy model for a residential unit in Iraq was developed to predict the energy consumption in two scenarios. In the first scenario, electricity is supplied for 12 hours. In the second, electricity is supplied continuously. The results of these two simulations are then compared with the assumption of the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity (MoE). The energy consumption in each scenario is reflected in the load on the national electricity grid. The scenarios are also investigated to determine the impacts of different building envelopes on energy consumption. The results showed that the electricity supply regime plays an important role for energy consumption within a building. Based on these results, the actual need for generation capacity to fulfill the demand for electricity in Iraq is less than what has been predicted by MoE, requiring only 57% more generation power when the load on the grid peaks. The results of study emphasis the importance of approaching power grid challenge nonlinearly with the hope of building more representative model for the gird using system thinking approach.