Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices
Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks thr...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The review of economics and statistics 2023-05, Vol.105 (3), p.733-743 |
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| container_issue | 3 |
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| container_title | The review of economics and statistics |
| container_volume | 105 |
| creator | Aastveit, Knut Are Bjørnland, Hilde C. Cross, Jamie L. |
| description | Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer-lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1162/rest_a_01073 |
| format | Article |
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| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0034-6535 |
| ispartof | The review of economics and statistics, 2023-05, Vol.105 (3), p.733-743 |
| issn | 0034-6535 1530-9142 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2899038083 |
| source | Business Source Complete; MIT Press Journals |
| subjects | Deflation Economic activity Inflation Inflation expectations Petroleum Prices Supply & demand |
| title | Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices |
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