Increased Arctic climate extremes constrain expected higher plant reproductive success in a warmer climate

The low reproductive success of Arctic plants is predicted to increase as the climate warms. However, climate extremes add complexity to these predictions. In the extremely cold year of 2018, multiple Arctic trophic levels experienced reproductive failure. We analysed a unique long-term record of seed viability from experimentally warmed and ambient plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island, which has been running since 1992 and included 2018 and the extremely warm year of 2019. Positive and negative July temperature anomalies and summer temperatures have increased significantly by 0.5, −0.3, and 0.4 °C/decade since 1977, respectively, resulting in greater extremes and increased inter-annual variation. Seed viability of some species has increased with climate warming. Across years, seed viability of woody species was consistently higher in warmed than ambient plots while the opposite was true for forbs. In 2018, seed viability of woody species in ambient plots was significantly lower than normal but comparable with past years for forb species. Not all species returned to normal seed viability levels in 2019. Our study highlights the potential for greater sexual reproductive failure in tundra plants with increasing climate extremes. We suggest that poor seed viability of woody species in cold years could constrain shrub recruitment and may aid forb species establishment on bare tundra.