Evolution Characteristics of Landscape Patterns and the Response of Surface Runoff in a Rapid Urbanization Area: Focus on the Chang–Zhu–Tan Metropolitan Area of China

With the acceleration of urbanization, the disturbance to urban landscape patterns causes changes to urban surface runoff and increases the risk of urban waterlogging. We studied the response relationship between landscape pattern change and surface runoff in the Chang–Zhu–Tan metropolitan area for the period from 2000 to 2020, analyzing the driving factors that affected surface runoff. The influence of landscape pattern evolution on surface runoff was studied using the SCS-CN flow generation model, the moving window method, and Pearson’s analysis. The analysis showed that between 2000 and 2020, the forest area decreased, while the impermeable land area increased substantially. At the same time, the landscape spread degree (CONTAG) decreased, whereas the landscape fragmentation degree (DIVISION) increased, and the Shannon diversity index (SHDI) and landscape shape index (LSI) increased. The surface runoff in the main urban areas of Chang–Zhu–Tan increased substantially. The results showed that surface runoff is negatively correlated with SHDI, LSI, and DIVISION but displays a positive relationship to CONTAG. Soil texture and precipitation had the greatest impact on surface runoff. This study emphasizes the importance of landscape pattern evolution to surface runoff in rapidly developing metropolitan areas in terms of reducing surface runoff, alleviating urban waterlogging and preventing regional floods. Our research additionally seeks to optimize the landscape pattern of the Chang–Zhu–Tan metropolitan area.