Study of Extreme Magnetopause Distortions Under Varying Solar Wind Conditions

To first order, the magnetopause (MP) is defined by a pressure balance between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. The boundary moves under the influence of varying solar wind conditions and transient foreshock phenomena, reaching unusually large and small distances from the Earth. We investigate under which solar wind conditions such extreme MP distortions occur. Therefore, we construct a database of magnetopause crossings (MPCs) observed by the THEMIS spacecraft in the years 2007 to mid‐2022 using a simple Random Forest Classifier. Roughly 7% of the found crossing events deviate beyond reported errors in the stand‐off distance from the Shue et al. (1998, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JA01103) MP model and thus are termed extreme distortions. We find the occurrence of these extreme events in terms of expansion or compression of the MP to be linked to different solar wind parameters, most notably to the IMF magnitude, cone angle, velocity, Alfvén Mach number and temperature. Foreshock transients like hot‐flow anomalies and foreshock bubbles could be responsible for extreme magnetospheric expansions. The results should be incorporated into future magnetopause models and may be helpful for the reconstruction of the MP locations out of soft x‐ray images, relevant for the upcoming SMILE mission. Key Points More than 160.000 magnetopause crossings (MPCs) identified in THEMIS data between 2007 and 2022 using a Random Forest Classifier Magnetopause crossings that extremely deviate in location from the Shue et al. (1998, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JA01103) model are quite common Important solar wind parameters associated with deviations include the interplanetary magnetic field cone angle, solar wind velocity and Alfvén Mach number