Analysis of climate extremes indices in tropical South America through the RegCM4.7
In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events induced by global warming have increased significantly, exerting serious impacts on the development of society and ecosystems. Based on low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmenta...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | International journal of climatology 2023-08, Vol.43 (10), p.4506-4531 |
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| creator | Silva, Maria Leidinice Oliveira, Cristiano Prestrelo Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos Araújo, João Medeiros |
| description | In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events induced by global warming have increased significantly, exerting serious impacts on the development of society and ecosystems. Based on low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we use the general circulation model HadGEM2‐ES that is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to drive the regional climate model RegCM4.7. This study evaluated the ability of both models to simulate (1986–2005) and projection (2080–2099) spatio‐temporal features of extreme indices over tropical South America (TSA). Indices based on precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature follow the definitions of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In general, the RegCM4.7 reproduces accordingly the spatial distribution of the ETCCDI indices derived from precipitation and temperature on the TSA, in addition to added value to HadGEM2‐ES, especially over regions of complex topography. HadGEM2‐ES performs poorly along the west coast, due to the topography and altitude of the Andes. On the other hand, it demonstrates better performance in the Amazon Basin compared to RegCM4.7. The projection results showed that climate extreme indices based on precipitation and temperature indicate that drought events may advance to the end of the century, showing a spatial pattern that precipitation will be gradually reduced in the Amazon Basin and Northeast region of Brazil. Despite some discrepancies between the models, studies like this one help us to understand how climate change can affect regional planning and development.
This study explores the impact of the dynamical downscaling in the added value of the RegCM4.7 driven by the HadGEM2‐ES during historical simulations and projections of extreme climate indices under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the tropical South America domain. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/joc.8100 |
| format | Article |
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This study explores the impact of the dynamical downscaling in the added value of the RegCM4.7 driven by the HadGEM2‐ES during historical simulations and projections of extreme climate indices under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the tropical South America domain.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0899-8418</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1097-0088</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/joc.8100</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</publisher><subject>added value ; Change detection ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climatic analysis ; Climatic extremes ; Climatic indexes ; Drought ; dynamical downscaling ; Emissions ; ETCCDI ; Extreme weather ; General circulation models ; Global warming ; Greenhouse effect ; Greenhouse gases ; Intercomparison ; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ; Minimum temperatures ; Modelling ; Precipitation ; Precipitation-temperature relationships ; Regional climate models ; Regional climates ; Regional development ; Regional planning ; River basins ; Spatial distribution ; Temperature ; Temporal variations ; Topography</subject><ispartof>International journal of climatology, 2023-08, Vol.43 (10), p.4506-4531</ispartof><rights>2023 Royal Meteorological Society</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c2930-ecde3ebdb65343c90bec3e9632d710ba81fed0f39716df683945ab0e4ce6eeab3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c2930-ecde3ebdb65343c90bec3e9632d710ba81fed0f39716df683945ab0e4ce6eeab3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-9495-3974</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2Fjoc.8100$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2Fjoc.8100$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Silva, Maria Leidinice</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oliveira, Cristiano Prestrelo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Araújo, João Medeiros</creatorcontrib><title>Analysis of climate extremes indices in tropical South America through the RegCM4.7</title><title>International journal of climatology</title><description>In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events induced by global warming have increased significantly, exerting serious impacts on the development of society and ecosystems. Based on low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we use the general circulation model HadGEM2‐ES that is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to drive the regional climate model RegCM4.7. This study evaluated the ability of both models to simulate (1986–2005) and projection (2080–2099) spatio‐temporal features of extreme indices over tropical South America (TSA). Indices based on precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature follow the definitions of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In general, the RegCM4.7 reproduces accordingly the spatial distribution of the ETCCDI indices derived from precipitation and temperature on the TSA, in addition to added value to HadGEM2‐ES, especially over regions of complex topography. HadGEM2‐ES performs poorly along the west coast, due to the topography and altitude of the Andes. On the other hand, it demonstrates better performance in the Amazon Basin compared to RegCM4.7. The projection results showed that climate extreme indices based on precipitation and temperature indicate that drought events may advance to the end of the century, showing a spatial pattern that precipitation will be gradually reduced in the Amazon Basin and Northeast region of Brazil. Despite some discrepancies between the models, studies like this one help us to understand how climate change can affect regional planning and development.
This study explores the impact of the dynamical downscaling in the added value of the RegCM4.7 driven by the HadGEM2‐ES during historical simulations and projections of extreme climate indices under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the tropical South America domain.</description><subject>added value</subject><subject>Change detection</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climatic analysis</subject><subject>Climatic extremes</subject><subject>Climatic indexes</subject><subject>Drought</subject><subject>dynamical downscaling</subject><subject>Emissions</subject><subject>ETCCDI</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>General circulation models</subject><subject>Global warming</subject><subject>Greenhouse effect</subject><subject>Greenhouse gases</subject><subject>Intercomparison</subject><subject>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</subject><subject>Minimum temperatures</subject><subject>Modelling</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Precipitation-temperature relationships</subject><subject>Regional climate models</subject><subject>Regional climates</subject><subject>Regional development</subject><subject>Regional planning</subject><subject>River basins</subject><subject>Spatial distribution</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Temporal variations</subject><subject>Topography</subject><issn>0899-8418</issn><issn>1097-0088</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp1kMFKAzEQhoMoWKvgIwS8eNk62aS7ybEsWpVKweo5ZLOz7ZZtU5NdtG9v2nr19M3ANwP_T8gtgxEDSB_Wzo5knM7IgIHKEwApz8kApFKJFExekqsQ1gCgFMsGZDHZmnYfmkBdTW3bbEyHFH86jxsMtNlWjT2Sdt7tGmtaunB9t6KTDfq40m7lXb9cRSJ9x2XxJkb5NbmoTRvw5o9D8vn0-FE8J7P59KWYzBKbKg4J2go5llWZjbngVkGJlqPKeFrlDEojWY0V1FzlLKvqTHIlxqYEFBYzRFPyIbk7_d1599Vj6PTa9T7mCTqVQqgUGM-idX-yrHcheKz1zseYfq8Z6ENl8crqQ2VRTU7qd9Pi_l9Pv86Lo_8LPM9s4w</recordid><startdate>202308</startdate><enddate>202308</enddate><creator>Silva, Maria Leidinice</creator><creator>Oliveira, Cristiano Prestrelo</creator><creator>Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos</creator><creator>Araújo, João Medeiros</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</general><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9495-3974</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202308</creationdate><title>Analysis of climate extremes indices in tropical South America through the RegCM4.7</title><author>Silva, Maria Leidinice ; 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Based on low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we use the general circulation model HadGEM2‐ES that is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to drive the regional climate model RegCM4.7. This study evaluated the ability of both models to simulate (1986–2005) and projection (2080–2099) spatio‐temporal features of extreme indices over tropical South America (TSA). Indices based on precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature follow the definitions of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In general, the RegCM4.7 reproduces accordingly the spatial distribution of the ETCCDI indices derived from precipitation and temperature on the TSA, in addition to added value to HadGEM2‐ES, especially over regions of complex topography. HadGEM2‐ES performs poorly along the west coast, due to the topography and altitude of the Andes. On the other hand, it demonstrates better performance in the Amazon Basin compared to RegCM4.7. The projection results showed that climate extreme indices based on precipitation and temperature indicate that drought events may advance to the end of the century, showing a spatial pattern that precipitation will be gradually reduced in the Amazon Basin and Northeast region of Brazil. Despite some discrepancies between the models, studies like this one help us to understand how climate change can affect regional planning and development.
This study explores the impact of the dynamical downscaling in the added value of the RegCM4.7 driven by the HadGEM2‐ES during historical simulations and projections of extreme climate indices under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the tropical South America domain.</abstract><cop>Chichester, UK</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</pub><doi>10.1002/joc.8100</doi><tpages>26</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9495-3974</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| subjects | added value Change detection Climate change Climate models Climatic analysis Climatic extremes Climatic indexes Drought dynamical downscaling Emissions ETCCDI Extreme weather General circulation models Global warming Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Intercomparison Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Minimum temperatures Modelling Precipitation Precipitation-temperature relationships Regional climate models Regional climates Regional development Regional planning River basins Spatial distribution Temperature Temporal variations Topography |
| title | Analysis of climate extremes indices in tropical South America through the RegCM4.7 |
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