Computational aspects of the approximate analytic solutions of the SIR model: applications to modelling of COVID-19 outbreaks
The SIR (susceptible–infected–recovered) is one of the simplest models for epidemic outbreaks. The present paper demonstrates the parametric solution of the model in terms of quadratures and derives a double exponential analytical asymptotic solution for the I-variable, which is valid on the entire...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Nonlinear dynamics 2023-08, Vol.111 (16), p.15613-15631 |
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| description | The SIR (susceptible–infected–recovered) is one of the simplest models for epidemic outbreaks. The present paper demonstrates the parametric solution of the model in terms of quadratures and derives a double exponential analytical asymptotic solution for the I-variable, which is valid on the entire real line. Moreover, the double exponential solution can be used successfully for parametric estimation either in stand-alone mode or as a preliminary step in the parametric estimation using numerical inversion of the parametric solution. A second, refined, asymptotic solution involving exponential gamma kernels was also demonstrated. The approach was applied to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in six European countries—Belgium, Italy, Sweden, France, Spain and Bulgaria in the period 2020-2021. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s11071-023-08656-8 |
| format | Article |
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| subjects | Approximation Asymptotic methods Automotive Engineering Classical Mechanics Control Coronaviruses COVID-19 Disease transmission Dynamical Systems Engineering Epidemics Epidemiology Exact solutions Mathematical models Mechanical Engineering Ordinary differential equations Original Paper Outbreaks Pandemics Parameter estimation Quadratures Variables Vibration Viral diseases |
| title | Computational aspects of the approximate analytic solutions of the SIR model: applications to modelling of COVID-19 outbreaks |
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