Prediction of land use and land cover changes (LULC) and urban growth analysis in Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMA) using CA-Markov model and geospatial techniques

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are one of the most important elements that shaped the global environmental setting. Day by day, the number of migrants from all over the country is increasing in Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMA), thus forcing pressure on the surrounding environment. The objectives of the study are to identify the LULC changes along with urban growth and LULC prediction in the study area. ERDAS Imagine 2015 and ArcMap 10.4 were used for data management, analysis, and presentation. Urban growth and LULC change prediction are calculated by using Shannon’s entropy and the CA-Markov model. The study observed that urbanization resulted in a considerable rise in the built-up area as well as a significant decline in agricultural land, vegetation, and water bodies in the study area. It is projected that the expansion of the built-up area will continue in the upcoming days while waterbody, agricultural land, and the vegetated cover area will decrease after 41 years. The study summarized that 59.27% area of DMA will be converted to built-up area by 2030, and it is expected to rise up to 70.86% by 2060. It is noted that less than 4% area will remain a waterbody in 2060. The study will serve as a guideline for government and non-government organizations, policymakers including urban planners, and scientific communities to assure sustainable urban land use planning and management.