An investigation into the probability that this is the last year of the economic expansion

The paper finds determinants for the end of U.S. economic expansions since 1960 using a binary variable approach. Different from previous studies, we specify a left‐hand side variable that is coded as one during the year prior to NBER dated recessions rather than during recessions. We thereby avoid...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of forecasting 2023-08, Vol.42 (5), p.1228-1244
Hauptverfasser:	Keil, Manfred, Leamer, Edward, Li, Yao
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	forecasting Interest rates leading economic indicators Probability recession Recessions Specification
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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