Transient population dynamics drive the spread of invasive wild pigs and reveal impacts of management in North America

Invasion of nonindigenous species is considered one of the most urgent problems affecting native ecosystems and agricultural systems. Mechanistic models that account for short-term population dynamics can improve prediction because they incorporate differing demographic processes that link the environmental conditions of a spatial location explicitly with the invasion process. Yet short-term population dynamics are rarely accounted for in spatial models of invasive species spread. Accounting for transient (short-term) population dynamics that arise from the interaction of age structure and vital rates, we predict the stochastic population growth rate and establishment probability of wild pigs following introduction into any location in North America. Established ecological theory suggests that the rate of spatial spread is proportional to population growth rate. Using observed geographic distribution data for wild pigs we calculated geographic spread rates (watersheds/year) from 1982 to 2021. We investigated if observed spread rates increased in watersheds with higher stochastic population growth rates. Stochastic population growth rate and establishment probability of wild pigs increased with increasing initial population (propagule) size and length of establishment time. Areas along the Mississippi, Ohio, and lower portions of the Missouri river drainages had the highest probability of wild pig establishment with many regions having probabilities close to 1. Spread rates demonstrated strong spatial heterogeneity with the greatest rates of spread (5.8 watersheds/year) occurring from 2008 to 2013 prior to the establishment of a National wild pig control program in 2013. Spread rates declined 82% (0.57 watersheds/year) in the period from 2013 to 2021 compared to the period from 1982 to 2013. We found significant positive associations among stochastic population growth rate and observed geographic rates of spread. Stochastic population growth rate explained a large amount of variation (79.3–92.1%) in annual rate of watershed spread of wild pigs. Our predicted probabilities of establishment and population growth can be used to inform surveillance and control efforts to reduce the potential for establishment and spread of wild pigs.