Impact of US-China trade war on Asian economies: neural network multilayer perceptron approach
Purpose This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, th...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of Chinese economic and foreign trade studies 2023-05, Vol.16 (2), p.172-189 |
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| creator | Rahman, Mohd Nayyer Iqbal, Badar Alam Rahman, Nida |
| description | Purpose
This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.
Design/methodology/approach
A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.
Findings
The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.
Originality/value
The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2022-0056 |
| format | Article |
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This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.
Design/methodology/approach
A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.
Findings
The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.
Originality/value
The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1754-4408</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1754-4416</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1754-4408</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2022-0056</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Bingley: Emerald Publishing Limited</publisher><subject>Anti dumping ; Beans ; Conceptual models ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; Disease transmission ; Dummy ; Dumping ; Economic conditions ; Economic growth ; Exports ; GDP ; Global economy ; Gross Domestic Product ; Inconsistency ; Industrialized nations ; International trade ; Macroeconomics ; Manufacturers ; Manufacturing ; Measures ; Medical research ; Network analysis ; Neural networks ; Presidential elections ; Soybeans ; Tariffs ; Trade agreements ; Trade deficit ; Trade disputes ; Trade policy ; War</subject><ispartof>Journal of Chinese economic and foreign trade studies, 2023-05, Vol.16 (2), p.172-189</ispartof><rights>Emerald Publishing Limited</rights><rights>Emerald Publishing Limited.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c410t-619774e4bf5355fe724fa19be50a83c007aecb1e9ecd48580283bb86409ae0be3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c410t-619774e4bf5355fe724fa19be50a83c007aecb1e9ecd48580283bb86409ae0be3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2022-0056/full/html$$EHTML$$P50$$Gemerald$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,12843,21693,27864,27922,27923,53242</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Rahman, Mohd Nayyer</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Iqbal, Badar Alam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rahman, Nida</creatorcontrib><title>Impact of US-China trade war on Asian economies: neural network multilayer perceptron approach</title><title>Journal of Chinese economic and foreign trade studies</title><description>Purpose
This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.
Design/methodology/approach
A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.
Findings
The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.
Originality/value
The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.</description><subject>Anti dumping</subject><subject>Beans</subject><subject>Conceptual models</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Dummy</subject><subject>Dumping</subject><subject>Economic conditions</subject><subject>Economic growth</subject><subject>Exports</subject><subject>GDP</subject><subject>Global economy</subject><subject>Gross Domestic Product</subject><subject>Inconsistency</subject><subject>Industrialized nations</subject><subject>International trade</subject><subject>Macroeconomics</subject><subject>Manufacturers</subject><subject>Manufacturing</subject><subject>Measures</subject><subject>Medical research</subject><subject>Network analysis</subject><subject>Neural networks</subject><subject>Presidential elections</subject><subject>Soybeans</subject><subject>Tariffs</subject><subject>Trade agreements</subject><subject>Trade deficit</subject><subject>Trade disputes</subject><subject>Trade policy</subject><subject>War</subject><issn>1754-4408</issn><issn>1754-4416</issn><issn>1754-4408</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>7TQ</sourceid><sourceid>7UB</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kc1OwzAQhCMEEqXwBFwscQ6sHdtxuFVRC0WVOLS9EjnuRk3JH3aqqm-Po1YgDpxmDjOz0rdBcE_hkVJQT2_pdLZahqBCBoyFAEJeBCMaCx5yTuXljwd1Hdw4twOQCadsFHzM606bnrQFWS_DdFs2mvRWb5ActCVtQyau1A1B0zZtXaJ7Jg3ura689IfWfpJ6X_VlpY9oSYfWYNdb39JdZ1tttrfBVaErh3dnHQfr2XSVvoaL95d5OlmEhlPoQ0mTOObI80JEQhQYM15omuQoQKvIAMQaTU4xQbPhSihgKspzJTkkGiHHaBw8nHb92a89uj7btXvb-JMZUzQSTERS-VR0ShnbOmexyDpb1toeMwrZADI7gcy8G0BmA0jfIqfWAKF0vx0lEiqklMJH2DlSo4ez-Wf3z4Oib_jlgEw</recordid><startdate>20230517</startdate><enddate>20230517</enddate><creator>Rahman, Mohd Nayyer</creator><creator>Iqbal, Badar Alam</creator><creator>Rahman, Nida</creator><general>Emerald Publishing Limited</general><general>Emerald Group Publishing Limited</general><scope>OQ6</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>0U~</scope><scope>1-H</scope><scope>7RO</scope><scope>7TQ</scope><scope>7UB</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AXJJW</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DHY</scope><scope>DON</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L.0</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>Q9U</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20230517</creationdate><title>Impact of US-China trade war on Asian economies: neural network multilayer perceptron approach</title><author>Rahman, Mohd Nayyer ; Iqbal, Badar Alam ; Rahman, Nida</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c410t-619774e4bf5355fe724fa19be50a83c007aecb1e9ecd48580283bb86409ae0be3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2023</creationdate><topic>Anti dumping</topic><topic>Beans</topic><topic>Conceptual models</topic><topic>Coronaviruses</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Dummy</topic><topic>Dumping</topic><topic>Economic conditions</topic><topic>Economic growth</topic><topic>Exports</topic><topic>GDP</topic><topic>Global economy</topic><topic>Gross Domestic Product</topic><topic>Inconsistency</topic><topic>Industrialized nations</topic><topic>International trade</topic><topic>Macroeconomics</topic><topic>Manufacturers</topic><topic>Manufacturing</topic><topic>Measures</topic><topic>Medical research</topic><topic>Network analysis</topic><topic>Neural networks</topic><topic>Presidential elections</topic><topic>Soybeans</topic><topic>Tariffs</topic><topic>Trade agreements</topic><topic>Trade deficit</topic><topic>Trade disputes</topic><topic>Trade policy</topic><topic>War</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Rahman, Mohd Nayyer</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Iqbal, Badar Alam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rahman, Nida</creatorcontrib><collection>ECONIS</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Global News & ABI/Inform Professional</collection><collection>Trade PRO</collection><collection>Asian Business Database</collection><collection>PAIS Index</collection><collection>Worldwide Political Science Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Asian & European Business Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>PAIS International</collection><collection>PAIS International (Ovid)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Corporate)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Advanced</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Standard</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><jtitle>Journal of Chinese economic and foreign trade studies</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Rahman, Mohd Nayyer</au><au>Iqbal, Badar Alam</au><au>Rahman, Nida</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Impact of US-China trade war on Asian economies: neural network multilayer perceptron approach</atitle><jtitle>Journal of Chinese economic and foreign trade studies</jtitle><date>2023-05-17</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>16</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>172</spage><epage>189</epage><pages>172-189</pages><issn>1754-4408</issn><eissn>1754-4416</eissn><eissn>1754-4408</eissn><abstract>Purpose
This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.
Design/methodology/approach
A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.
Findings
The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.
Originality/value
The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.</abstract><cop>Bingley</cop><pub>Emerald Publishing Limited</pub><doi>10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2022-0056</doi><tpages>18</tpages></addata></record> |
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| identifier | ISSN: 1754-4408 |
| ispartof | Journal of Chinese economic and foreign trade studies, 2023-05, Vol.16 (2), p.172-189 |
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| source | PAIS Index; Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; Standard: Emerald eJournal Premier Collection |
| subjects | Anti dumping Beans Conceptual models Coronaviruses COVID-19 Disease transmission Dummy Dumping Economic conditions Economic growth Exports GDP Global economy Gross Domestic Product Inconsistency Industrialized nations International trade Macroeconomics Manufacturers Manufacturing Measures Medical research Network analysis Neural networks Presidential elections Soybeans Tariffs Trade agreements Trade deficit Trade disputes Trade policy War |
| title | Impact of US-China trade war on Asian economies: neural network multilayer perceptron approach |
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