Australia’s Future Extratropical Cyclones
Extratropical cyclones are responsible for the majority of total and extreme rainfall in many regions of the extratropics, including in southern Australia. Using an ensemble of projections from 12 regional climate models, we show that both the number of cyclone days and total cyclone-related rainfal...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of climate 2022-12, Vol.35 (23), p.7795-7810 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 7810 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 23 |
| container_start_page | 7795 |
| container_title | Journal of climate |
| container_volume | 35 |
| creator | Pepler, Acacia S. Dowdy, Andrew J. |
| description | Extratropical cyclones are responsible for the majority of total and extreme rainfall in many regions of the extratropics, including in southern Australia. Using an ensemble of projections from 12 regional climate models, we show that both the number of cyclone days and total cyclone-related rainfall are projected to decline across southern Australia during the twenty-first century. This is a robust signal in projections across models and explains more than 80% of projected declines in total cool-season rainfall in the region. Using cyclone-centered composites, we show that cyclone intensity based on wind speed is projected to decrease but cyclone maximum rainfall is projected to increase by close to 7% K-1 in the southeast. This results in a shift in the distribution of cyclone rainfall, with a decrease in moderate rainfall but little change or an increase in extreme rainfall. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0312.1 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>jstor_proqu</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2809568394</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><jstor_id>27275426</jstor_id><sourcerecordid>27275426</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c265t-582dc652d0e0757e6142d3fa0f01b1e86b95646e6f47dc54c50caa98e7bf46c63</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNo9kE1Lw0AQQBdRMFbvXoSCR9k6O9mvHEvaaiXgRc_LdrOBhtjU3QTszb_h3-svMSXiaWB4bwYeIbcMZowp8fiSF2u6oIgUUoYzdkYSJhAocI7nJAGdcaqVEJfkKsYagKEESMjDvI9dsM3WHr9_4nTVd33w0-XXsOtCu98620zzg2vanY_X5KKyTfQ3f3NC3lfLt_yZFq9P63xeUIdSdFRoLJ0UWIIHJZSXjGOZVhYqYBvmtdxkQnLpZcVV6QR3Apy1mfZqU3HpZDoh9-PdfWg_ex87U7d92A0vDWoYZJ1mfKBgpFxoYwy-Mvuw_bDhYBiYUxJzSmIWBtGckhg2KHejUseuDf88KlSCo0x_AUleXaQ</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2809568394</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Australia’s Future Extratropical Cyclones</title><source>American Meteorological Society</source><source>Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals</source><creator>Pepler, Acacia S. ; Dowdy, Andrew J.</creator><creatorcontrib>Pepler, Acacia S. ; Dowdy, Andrew J.</creatorcontrib><description>Extratropical cyclones are responsible for the majority of total and extreme rainfall in many regions of the extratropics, including in southern Australia. Using an ensemble of projections from 12 regional climate models, we show that both the number of cyclone days and total cyclone-related rainfall are projected to decline across southern Australia during the twenty-first century. This is a robust signal in projections across models and explains more than 80% of projected declines in total cool-season rainfall in the region. Using cyclone-centered composites, we show that cyclone intensity based on wind speed is projected to decrease but cyclone maximum rainfall is projected to increase by close to 7% K-1 in the southeast. This results in a shift in the distribution of cyclone rainfall, with a decrease in moderate rainfall but little change or an increase in extreme rainfall.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0894-8755</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1520-0442</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0312.1</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Boston: American Meteorological Society</publisher><subject>Climate ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Coasts ; Cyclones ; Datasets ; Extratropical cyclones ; Extreme weather ; Global warming ; Heavy rainfall ; Maximum rainfall ; Precipitation ; Rainfall ; Rainfall frequency ; Rainfall intensity ; Regional climate models ; Regional climates ; Wind speed</subject><ispartof>Journal of climate, 2022-12, Vol.35 (23), p.7795-7810</ispartof><rights>2022 American Meteorological Society</rights><rights>Copyright American Meteorological Society 2022</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c265t-582dc652d0e0757e6142d3fa0f01b1e86b95646e6f47dc54c50caa98e7bf46c63</citedby></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,778,782,3670,27911,27912</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Pepler, Acacia S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dowdy, Andrew J.</creatorcontrib><title>Australia’s Future Extratropical Cyclones</title><title>Journal of climate</title><description>Extratropical cyclones are responsible for the majority of total and extreme rainfall in many regions of the extratropics, including in southern Australia. Using an ensemble of projections from 12 regional climate models, we show that both the number of cyclone days and total cyclone-related rainfall are projected to decline across southern Australia during the twenty-first century. This is a robust signal in projections across models and explains more than 80% of projected declines in total cool-season rainfall in the region. Using cyclone-centered composites, we show that cyclone intensity based on wind speed is projected to decrease but cyclone maximum rainfall is projected to increase by close to 7% K-1 in the southeast. This results in a shift in the distribution of cyclone rainfall, with a decrease in moderate rainfall but little change or an increase in extreme rainfall.</description><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Coasts</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>Datasets</subject><subject>Extratropical cyclones</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>Global warming</subject><subject>Heavy rainfall</subject><subject>Maximum rainfall</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Rainfall frequency</subject><subject>Rainfall intensity</subject><subject>Regional climate models</subject><subject>Regional climates</subject><subject>Wind speed</subject><issn>0894-8755</issn><issn>1520-0442</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNo9kE1Lw0AQQBdRMFbvXoSCR9k6O9mvHEvaaiXgRc_LdrOBhtjU3QTszb_h3-svMSXiaWB4bwYeIbcMZowp8fiSF2u6oIgUUoYzdkYSJhAocI7nJAGdcaqVEJfkKsYagKEESMjDvI9dsM3WHr9_4nTVd33w0-XXsOtCu98620zzg2vanY_X5KKyTfQ3f3NC3lfLt_yZFq9P63xeUIdSdFRoLJ0UWIIHJZSXjGOZVhYqYBvmtdxkQnLpZcVV6QR3Apy1mfZqU3HpZDoh9-PdfWg_ex87U7d92A0vDWoYZJ1mfKBgpFxoYwy-Mvuw_bDhYBiYUxJzSmIWBtGckhg2KHejUseuDf88KlSCo0x_AUleXaQ</recordid><startdate>20221201</startdate><enddate>20221201</enddate><creator>Pepler, Acacia S.</creator><creator>Dowdy, Andrew J.</creator><general>American Meteorological Society</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QH</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88F</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M1Q</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>S0X</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20221201</creationdate><title>Australia’s Future Extratropical Cyclones</title><author>Pepler, Acacia S. ; Dowdy, Andrew J.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c265t-582dc652d0e0757e6142d3fa0f01b1e86b95646e6f47dc54c50caa98e7bf46c63</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Coasts</topic><topic>Cyclones</topic><topic>Datasets</topic><topic>Extratropical cyclones</topic><topic>Extreme weather</topic><topic>Global warming</topic><topic>Heavy rainfall</topic><topic>Maximum rainfall</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Rainfall frequency</topic><topic>Rainfall intensity</topic><topic>Regional climate models</topic><topic>Regional climates</topic><topic>Wind speed</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Pepler, Acacia S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dowdy, Andrew J.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Aqualine</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Military Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>STEM Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>eLibrary</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Database</collection><collection>Military Database</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>SIRS Editorial</collection><jtitle>Journal of climate</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Pepler, Acacia S.</au><au>Dowdy, Andrew J.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Australia’s Future Extratropical Cyclones</atitle><jtitle>Journal of climate</jtitle><date>2022-12-01</date><risdate>2022</risdate><volume>35</volume><issue>23</issue><spage>7795</spage><epage>7810</epage><pages>7795-7810</pages><issn>0894-8755</issn><eissn>1520-0442</eissn><abstract>Extratropical cyclones are responsible for the majority of total and extreme rainfall in many regions of the extratropics, including in southern Australia. Using an ensemble of projections from 12 regional climate models, we show that both the number of cyclone days and total cyclone-related rainfall are projected to decline across southern Australia during the twenty-first century. This is a robust signal in projections across models and explains more than 80% of projected declines in total cool-season rainfall in the region. Using cyclone-centered composites, we show that cyclone intensity based on wind speed is projected to decrease but cyclone maximum rainfall is projected to increase by close to 7% K-1 in the southeast. This results in a shift in the distribution of cyclone rainfall, with a decrease in moderate rainfall but little change or an increase in extreme rainfall.</abstract><cop>Boston</cop><pub>American Meteorological Society</pub><doi>10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0312.1</doi><tpages>16</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0894-8755 |
| ispartof | Journal of climate, 2022-12, Vol.35 (23), p.7795-7810 |
| issn | 0894-8755 1520-0442 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2809568394 |
| source | American Meteorological Society; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals |
| subjects | Climate Climate change Climate models Coasts Cyclones Datasets Extratropical cyclones Extreme weather Global warming Heavy rainfall Maximum rainfall Precipitation Rainfall Rainfall frequency Rainfall intensity Regional climate models Regional climates Wind speed |
| title | Australia’s Future Extratropical Cyclones |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-15T16%3A45%3A34IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-jstor_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Australia%E2%80%99s%20Future%20Extratropical%20Cyclones&rft.jtitle=Journal%20of%20climate&rft.au=Pepler,%20Acacia%20S.&rft.date=2022-12-01&rft.volume=35&rft.issue=23&rft.spage=7795&rft.epage=7810&rft.pages=7795-7810&rft.issn=0894-8755&rft.eissn=1520-0442&rft_id=info:doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0312.1&rft_dat=%3Cjstor_proqu%3E27275426%3C/jstor_proqu%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2809568394&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_jstor_id=27275426&rfr_iscdi=true |