The role of Atlantic variability in modulating the tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region
Previously the interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Australian region has mainly been attributed to the climate variability in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In this study, we found that the influence from climate variability in the Atlantic is of equal importance. Applic...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climate dynamics 2023-05, Vol.60 (9-10), p.3081-3089 |
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| creator | Zhang, Shuo Ma, Ming Li, Ming Chen, Jian Bai, Chengzu |
| description | Previously the interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Australian region has mainly been attributed to the climate variability in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In this study, we found that the influence from climate variability in the Atlantic is of equal importance. Application of a state-of-the-art causality analysis reveals that the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are all causal to the Australian region TCG frequency. The associated physical mechanisms are investigated as well. Based on this causal analysis and inference, a statistical model is constructed to forecast TCG, using the Poisson regression and the step-by-step predictor selection method. The Atlantic causal factors, after being taken in as new predictors, help increase the forecast skill for the seasonal Australian region TCG by as much as 10% in terms of correlation increase and 40% in terms of root-mean-square error reduction. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00382-022-06492-x |
| format | Article |
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In this study, we found that the influence from climate variability in the Atlantic is of equal importance. Application of a state-of-the-art causality analysis reveals that the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are all causal to the Australian region TCG frequency. The associated physical mechanisms are investigated as well. Based on this causal analysis and inference, a statistical model is constructed to forecast TCG, using the Poisson regression and the step-by-step predictor selection method. 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In this study, we found that the influence from climate variability in the Atlantic is of equal importance. Application of a state-of-the-art causality analysis reveals that the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are all causal to the Australian region TCG frequency. The associated physical mechanisms are investigated as well. Based on this causal analysis and inference, a statistical model is constructed to forecast TCG, using the Poisson regression and the step-by-step predictor selection method. 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| subjects | Anomalies Atlantic Oscillation Causality Climate Climate variability Climatology Correlation analysis Cyclones Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences El Nino Environmental aspects Error reduction Geophysics/Geodesy Hurricanes Interannual variability Investigations Mathematical models Ocean temperature Oceanography Oceans Sea surface Sea surface temperature Statistical analysis Statistical inference Statistical models Surface temperature Thermohaline circulation Tropical cyclone formation Tropical cyclones Variability |
| title | The role of Atlantic variability in modulating the tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region |
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