Does covenant marriage predict latent trajectory groups of newlywed couples?

Covenant marriage is a legally distinct marriage license available in Arizona, Louisiana, and Arkansas in the United States. This study revisited one of the largest longitudinal dyadic studies on covenant versus standard newlywed couples. Using this dataset of 677 different‐sex couples, we explored whether being in a covenant marriage could predict how marital satisfaction developed over the first five marital years. We applied the Growth Mixture Modeling (GMM) method to identify groups that differed in their initial marital satisfaction and trajectory. The results revealed three different trajectory groups—one group showing high and stable marital satisfaction, which we named High Stable, and two groups showing declines in marital satisfaction, one being medium and the other one being low in satisfaction at the beginning of the marriage, and we named them Medium Declining and Low Declining respectively. Spouses with lower initial marital satisfaction experienced a faster decline and suffered the highest divorce rate. Actor‐Partner Interdependence Model (APIM) analysis revealed that one's group membership was predicted by their partner's membership, suggesting a mutual influence on marital development. Being in a covenant marriage was able to predict husbands' membership as covenant husbands were found to be more likely in the high stable group.