Conservation genomics reveals fine-scale population structuring and recent declines in the Critically Endangered Australian Kuranda Treefrog

The Kuranda Treefrog occurs in tropical north-east Australia and is listed as Critically Endangered due to its small distribution and population size, with observed declines due to drought and human-associated impacts to habitat. Field surveys identified marked population declines in the mid-2000s, culminating in very low abundance at most sites in 2005 and 2006, followed by limited recovery. Here, samples from before (2001–2004) and after (2007–2009) this decline were analysed using 7132 neutral genome-wide SNPs to assess genetic connectivity among breeding sites, genetic erosion, and effective population size. We found a high level of genetic connectivity among breeding sites, but also structuring between the population at the eastern end of the distribution (Jumrum Creek) versus all other sites. Despite finding no detectable sign of genetic erosion between the two times periods, we observed a marked decrease in effective population size (Ne), from 1720 individuals pre-decline to 818 post-decline. This mirrors the decline detected in the field census data, but the magnitude of the decline suggested by the genetic data is greater. We conclude that the current effective population size for the Kuranda Treefrog remains around 800 adults, split equally between Jumrum Creek and all other sites combined. The Jumrum Creek habitat requires formal protection. Connectivity among all other sites must be maintained and improved through continued replanting of rainforest, and it is imperative that impacts to stream flow and water quality are carefully managed to maintain or increase population sizes and prevent genetic erosion.