Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California
Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmosph...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Climate dynamics 2023-03, Vol.60 (5-6), p.1729-1749 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 1749 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 5-6 |
| container_start_page | 1729 |
| container_title | Climate dynamics |
| container_volume | 60 |
| creator | Guirguis, Kristen Gershunov, Alexander Hatchett, Benjamin Shulgina, Tamara DeFlorio, Michael J. Subramanian, Aneesh C. Guzman-Morales, Janin Aguilera, Rosana Clemesha, Rachel Corringham, Thomas W. Delle Monache, Luca Reynolds, David Tardy, Alex Small, Ivory Ralph, F. Martin |
| description | Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, resulting in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>gale_proqu</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2786337545</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><galeid>A741190216</galeid><sourcerecordid>A741190216</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c467t-e4cb4e4a8cf5091e1f415003b8bd77e0e0c0a193174ecfa70f219307b973ed5b3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kc2KFDEQxxtRcFx9AU8BQfDQa9JJd7qPw-DHwoLgKh5Ddboyk6UnPSaZHdeTT-DFN9wn2Rpb0LlIyEdV_f6VSqoongt-LjjXrxPnsq1KXtFsZCNK_aBYCCXJbDv1sFjwTvJS17p-XDxJ6ZpzoRpdLYqfX3zIGNkB892PX0O8pRPkDXl2kCkQEhuiv_FhzSBvp7SjkLeMXBgTgzCwKwgZ2DIAO_gwJLaL040fkOFxDRaZmyLzwUaEdExz8OPgfES2ge8QBwqxFYyeqODhafHIwZjw2Z_9rPj89s2n1fvy8sO7i9XysrRUdi5R2V6hgta6mncChVOipi_o237QGjlyy0F0UmiF1oHmriKL677TEoe6l2fFizkvVft1jymb62kfA11pKt02Uupa1USdz9QaRjQ-uClHsDQG3Ho7BXSe_EuthOh4JRoSvDoREJPxW17DPiVzcfXxlH35D7tBGPMmTeM--ymkU7CaQRunlCI6s4t-C_HWCG6O3Tdz9w113_zuvtEkkrMoERzWGP8-8D-qe9avtAw</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2786337545</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California</title><source>Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals</source><creator>Guirguis, Kristen ; Gershunov, Alexander ; Hatchett, Benjamin ; Shulgina, Tamara ; DeFlorio, Michael J. ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Guzman-Morales, Janin ; Aguilera, Rosana ; Clemesha, Rachel ; Corringham, Thomas W. ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Reynolds, David ; Tardy, Alex ; Small, Ivory ; Ralph, F. Martin</creator><creatorcontrib>Guirguis, Kristen ; Gershunov, Alexander ; Hatchett, Benjamin ; Shulgina, Tamara ; DeFlorio, Michael J. ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Guzman-Morales, Janin ; Aguilera, Rosana ; Clemesha, Rachel ; Corringham, Thomas W. ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Reynolds, David ; Tardy, Alex ; Small, Ivory ; Ralph, F. Martin</creatorcontrib><description>Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, resulting in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0930-7575</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1432-0894</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Atmospheric circulation ; Climatology ; Coasts ; Cold ; Cyclones ; Drying ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Environmental aspects ; Extreme weather ; Fire hazards ; Floods ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Historic floods ; Hot weather ; Oceanography ; Precipitation ; Precipitation (Meteorology) ; Rain ; Rivers ; Santa Ana winds ; Saws ; Weather ; Weather patterns ; Wildfires ; Wind ; Winds ; Winter ; Winter weather</subject><ispartof>Climate dynamics, 2023-03, Vol.60 (5-6), p.1729-1749</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2022</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2023 Springer</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2022. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c467t-e4cb4e4a8cf5091e1f415003b8bd77e0e0c0a193174ecfa70f219307b973ed5b3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c467t-e4cb4e4a8cf5091e1f415003b8bd77e0e0c0a193174ecfa70f219307b973ed5b3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-5274-0225</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,27905,27906,41469,42538,51300</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Guirguis, Kristen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gershunov, Alexander</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hatchett, Benjamin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shulgina, Tamara</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>DeFlorio, Michael J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Subramanian, Aneesh C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guzman-Morales, Janin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aguilera, Rosana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clemesha, Rachel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Corringham, Thomas W.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Delle Monache, Luca</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reynolds, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tardy, Alex</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Small, Ivory</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ralph, F. Martin</creatorcontrib><title>Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California</title><title>Climate dynamics</title><addtitle>Clim Dyn</addtitle><description>Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, resulting in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future.</description><subject>Atmospheric circulation</subject><subject>Climatology</subject><subject>Coasts</subject><subject>Cold</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>Drying</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>Fire hazards</subject><subject>Floods</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>Historic floods</subject><subject>Hot weather</subject><subject>Oceanography</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Precipitation (Meteorology)</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>Santa Ana winds</subject><subject>Saws</subject><subject>Weather</subject><subject>Weather patterns</subject><subject>Wildfires</subject><subject>Wind</subject><subject>Winds</subject><subject>Winter</subject><subject>Winter weather</subject><issn>0930-7575</issn><issn>1432-0894</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kc2KFDEQxxtRcFx9AU8BQfDQa9JJd7qPw-DHwoLgKh5Ddboyk6UnPSaZHdeTT-DFN9wn2Rpb0LlIyEdV_f6VSqoongt-LjjXrxPnsq1KXtFsZCNK_aBYCCXJbDv1sFjwTvJS17p-XDxJ6ZpzoRpdLYqfX3zIGNkB892PX0O8pRPkDXl2kCkQEhuiv_FhzSBvp7SjkLeMXBgTgzCwKwgZ2DIAO_gwJLaL040fkOFxDRaZmyLzwUaEdExz8OPgfES2ge8QBwqxFYyeqODhafHIwZjw2Z_9rPj89s2n1fvy8sO7i9XysrRUdi5R2V6hgta6mncChVOipi_o237QGjlyy0F0UmiF1oHmriKL677TEoe6l2fFizkvVft1jymb62kfA11pKt02Uupa1USdz9QaRjQ-uClHsDQG3Ho7BXSe_EuthOh4JRoSvDoREJPxW17DPiVzcfXxlH35D7tBGPMmTeM--ymkU7CaQRunlCI6s4t-C_HWCG6O3Tdz9w113_zuvtEkkrMoERzWGP8-8D-qe9avtAw</recordid><startdate>20230301</startdate><enddate>20230301</enddate><creator>Guirguis, Kristen</creator><creator>Gershunov, Alexander</creator><creator>Hatchett, Benjamin</creator><creator>Shulgina, Tamara</creator><creator>DeFlorio, Michael J.</creator><creator>Subramanian, Aneesh C.</creator><creator>Guzman-Morales, Janin</creator><creator>Aguilera, Rosana</creator><creator>Clemesha, Rachel</creator><creator>Corringham, Thomas W.</creator><creator>Delle Monache, Luca</creator><creator>Reynolds, David</creator><creator>Tardy, Alex</creator><creator>Small, Ivory</creator><creator>Ralph, F. Martin</creator><general>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</general><general>Springer</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88F</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M1Q</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5274-0225</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20230301</creationdate><title>Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California</title><author>Guirguis, Kristen ; Gershunov, Alexander ; Hatchett, Benjamin ; Shulgina, Tamara ; DeFlorio, Michael J. ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Guzman-Morales, Janin ; Aguilera, Rosana ; Clemesha, Rachel ; Corringham, Thomas W. ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Reynolds, David ; Tardy, Alex ; Small, Ivory ; Ralph, F. Martin</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c467t-e4cb4e4a8cf5091e1f415003b8bd77e0e0c0a193174ecfa70f219307b973ed5b3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2023</creationdate><topic>Atmospheric circulation</topic><topic>Climatology</topic><topic>Coasts</topic><topic>Cold</topic><topic>Cyclones</topic><topic>Drying</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Environmental aspects</topic><topic>Extreme weather</topic><topic>Fire hazards</topic><topic>Floods</topic><topic>Geophysics/Geodesy</topic><topic>Historic floods</topic><topic>Hot weather</topic><topic>Oceanography</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>Precipitation (Meteorology)</topic><topic>Rain</topic><topic>Rivers</topic><topic>Santa Ana winds</topic><topic>Saws</topic><topic>Weather</topic><topic>Weather patterns</topic><topic>Wildfires</topic><topic>Wind</topic><topic>Winds</topic><topic>Winter</topic><topic>Winter weather</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Guirguis, Kristen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gershunov, Alexander</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hatchett, Benjamin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shulgina, Tamara</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>DeFlorio, Michael J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Subramanian, Aneesh C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guzman-Morales, Janin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aguilera, Rosana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clemesha, Rachel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Corringham, Thomas W.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Delle Monache, Luca</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reynolds, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tardy, Alex</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Small, Ivory</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ralph, F. Martin</creatorcontrib><collection>Springer Nature OA Free Journals</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Science</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Military Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Military Database</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><jtitle>Climate dynamics</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Guirguis, Kristen</au><au>Gershunov, Alexander</au><au>Hatchett, Benjamin</au><au>Shulgina, Tamara</au><au>DeFlorio, Michael J.</au><au>Subramanian, Aneesh C.</au><au>Guzman-Morales, Janin</au><au>Aguilera, Rosana</au><au>Clemesha, Rachel</au><au>Corringham, Thomas W.</au><au>Delle Monache, Luca</au><au>Reynolds, David</au><au>Tardy, Alex</au><au>Small, Ivory</au><au>Ralph, F. Martin</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California</atitle><jtitle>Climate dynamics</jtitle><stitle>Clim Dyn</stitle><date>2023-03-01</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>60</volume><issue>5-6</issue><spage>1729</spage><epage>1749</epage><pages>1729-1749</pages><issn>0930-7575</issn><eissn>1432-0894</eissn><abstract>Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, resulting in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><doi>10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7</doi><tpages>21</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5274-0225</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0930-7575 |
| ispartof | Climate dynamics, 2023-03, Vol.60 (5-6), p.1729-1749 |
| issn | 0930-7575 1432-0894 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2786337545 |
| source | Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals |
| subjects | Atmospheric circulation Climatology Coasts Cold Cyclones Drying Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environmental aspects Extreme weather Fire hazards Floods Geophysics/Geodesy Historic floods Hot weather Oceanography Precipitation Precipitation (Meteorology) Rain Rivers Santa Ana winds Saws Weather Weather patterns Wildfires Wind Winds Winter Winter weather |
| title | Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-20T20%3A37%3A12IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Winter%20wet%E2%80%93dry%20weather%20patterns%20driving%20atmospheric%20rivers%20and%20Santa%20Ana%20winds%20provide%20evidence%20for%20increasing%20wildfire%20hazard%20in%20California&rft.jtitle=Climate%20dynamics&rft.au=Guirguis,%20Kristen&rft.date=2023-03-01&rft.volume=60&rft.issue=5-6&rft.spage=1729&rft.epage=1749&rft.pages=1729-1749&rft.issn=0930-7575&rft.eissn=1432-0894&rft_id=info:doi/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7&rft_dat=%3Cgale_proqu%3EA741190216%3C/gale_proqu%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2786337545&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_galeid=A741190216&rfr_iscdi=true |