Risk ranking of food categories associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the central region of Mexico
To prevent and control foodborne diseases, there is a fundamental need to identify the foods that are most likely to cause illness. The goal of this study was to rank 25 commonly consumed food products associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the Central Region of Mexico. A multicriteria...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Risk analysis 2023-02, Vol.43 (2), p.308-323 |
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description | To prevent and control foodborne diseases, there is a fundamental need to identify the foods that are most likely to cause illness. The goal of this study was to rank 25 commonly consumed food products associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the Central Region of Mexico. A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework was developed to obtain an S. enterica risk score for each food product based on four criteria: probability of exposure to S. enterica through domestic food consumption (Se); S. enterica growth potential during home storage (Sg); per capita consumption (Pcc); and food attribution of S. enterica outbreak (So). Risk scores were calculated by the equation Se*W1+Sg*W2+Pcc*W3+So*W4, where each criterion was assigned a normalized value (1–5) and the relative weights (W) were defined by 22 experts’ opinion. Se had the largest effect on the risk score being the criterion with the highest weight (35%; IC95% 20%–60%), followed by So (24%; 5%–50%), Sg (23%; 10%–40%), and Pcc (18%; 10%–35%). The results identified chicken (4.4 ± 0.6), pork (4.2 ± 0.6), and beef (4.2 ± 0.5) as the highest risk foods, followed by seed fruits (3.6 ± 0.5), tropical fruits (3.4 ± 0.4), and dried fruits and nuts (3.4 ± 0.5), while the food products with the lowest risk were yogurt (2.1 ± 0.3), chorizo (2.1 ± 0.4), and cream (2.0 ± 0.3). Approaches with expert‐based weighting and equal weighting showed good correlation (R2 = 0.96) and did not show significant differences among the ranking order in the top 20 tier. This study can help risk managers select interventions and develop targeted surveillance programs against S. enterica in high‐risk food products. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1111/risa.13907 |
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The goal of this study was to rank 25 commonly consumed food products associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the Central Region of Mexico. A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework was developed to obtain an S. enterica risk score for each food product based on four criteria: probability of exposure to S. enterica through domestic food consumption (Se); S. enterica growth potential during home storage (Sg); per capita consumption (Pcc); and food attribution of S. enterica outbreak (So). Risk scores were calculated by the equation Se*W1+Sg*W2+Pcc*W3+So*W4, where each criterion was assigned a normalized value (1–5) and the relative weights (W) were defined by 22 experts’ opinion. Se had the largest effect on the risk score being the criterion with the highest weight (35%; IC95% 20%–60%), followed by So (24%; 5%–50%), Sg (23%; 10%–40%), and Pcc (18%; 10%–35%). The results identified chicken (4.4 ± 0.6), pork (4.2 ± 0.6), and beef (4.2 ± 0.5) as the highest risk foods, followed by seed fruits (3.6 ± 0.5), tropical fruits (3.4 ± 0.4), and dried fruits and nuts (3.4 ± 0.5), while the food products with the lowest risk were yogurt (2.1 ± 0.3), chorizo (2.1 ± 0.4), and cream (2.0 ± 0.3). Approaches with expert‐based weighting and equal weighting showed good correlation (R2 = 0.96) and did not show significant differences among the ranking order in the top 20 tier. This study can help risk managers select interventions and develop targeted surveillance programs against S. enterica in high‐risk food products.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0272-4332</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1539-6924</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/risa.13907</identifier><identifier>PMID: 35383989</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Animals ; Attribution ; Beef ; Cattle ; Chickens ; Contamination ; Decision analysis ; Food ; Food consumption ; Food contamination ; Food products ; food, MCDA ; Foodborne diseases ; Fruit ; Fruits ; Mexico ; Multiple criterion ; Nuts ; Ranking ; Ratings & rankings ; Risk ; Risk assessment ; Risk Factors ; Salmonella ; Salmonella enterica ; Salmonella enterica, Mexico, risk ranking ; Seeds ; Surveillance systems ; Weighting</subject><ispartof>Risk analysis, 2023-02, Vol.43 (2), p.308-323</ispartof><rights>2022 Society for Risk Analysis.</rights><rights>2023 Society for Risk Analysis.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3577-980b51b0b3e20695853e7a0b67cac15f540a83957491793df83da70fccc722bc3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3577-980b51b0b3e20695853e7a0b67cac15f540a83957491793df83da70fccc722bc3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-3512-4356 ; 0000-0002-3313-5433</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Frisa.13907$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Frisa.13907$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35383989$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Godínez‐Oviedo, Angélica</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sampedro, Fernando</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bowman, John P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Garcés‐Vega, Francisco J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hernández‐Iturriaga, Montserrat</creatorcontrib><title>Risk ranking of food categories associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the central region of Mexico</title><title>Risk analysis</title><addtitle>Risk Anal</addtitle><description>To prevent and control foodborne diseases, there is a fundamental need to identify the foods that are most likely to cause illness. The goal of this study was to rank 25 commonly consumed food products associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the Central Region of Mexico. A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework was developed to obtain an S. enterica risk score for each food product based on four criteria: probability of exposure to S. enterica through domestic food consumption (Se); S. enterica growth potential during home storage (Sg); per capita consumption (Pcc); and food attribution of S. enterica outbreak (So). Risk scores were calculated by the equation Se*W1+Sg*W2+Pcc*W3+So*W4, where each criterion was assigned a normalized value (1–5) and the relative weights (W) were defined by 22 experts’ opinion. Se had the largest effect on the risk score being the criterion with the highest weight (35%; IC95% 20%–60%), followed by So (24%; 5%–50%), Sg (23%; 10%–40%), and Pcc (18%; 10%–35%). The results identified chicken (4.4 ± 0.6), pork (4.2 ± 0.6), and beef (4.2 ± 0.5) as the highest risk foods, followed by seed fruits (3.6 ± 0.5), tropical fruits (3.4 ± 0.4), and dried fruits and nuts (3.4 ± 0.5), while the food products with the lowest risk were yogurt (2.1 ± 0.3), chorizo (2.1 ± 0.4), and cream (2.0 ± 0.3). Approaches with expert‐based weighting and equal weighting showed good correlation (R2 = 0.96) and did not show significant differences among the ranking order in the top 20 tier. This study can help risk managers select interventions and develop targeted surveillance programs against S. enterica in high‐risk food products.</description><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Attribution</subject><subject>Beef</subject><subject>Cattle</subject><subject>Chickens</subject><subject>Contamination</subject><subject>Decision analysis</subject><subject>Food</subject><subject>Food consumption</subject><subject>Food contamination</subject><subject>Food products</subject><subject>food, MCDA</subject><subject>Foodborne diseases</subject><subject>Fruit</subject><subject>Fruits</subject><subject>Mexico</subject><subject>Multiple criterion</subject><subject>Nuts</subject><subject>Ranking</subject><subject>Ratings & rankings</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>Risk assessment</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Salmonella</subject><subject>Salmonella enterica</subject><subject>Salmonella enterica, Mexico, risk ranking</subject><subject>Seeds</subject><subject>Surveillance systems</subject><subject>Weighting</subject><issn>0272-4332</issn><issn>1539-6924</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kF1PwjAUhhujEURv_AGmiXcmw3Zd1_WSED9IMCag10vXdVDYWmhHkH9vceil5-bktE-ek_MCcIvREId6dNqLISYcsTPQx5TwKOVxcg76KGZxlBAS98CV9yuEMEKUXYIeoSQjPON9sJ1pv4ZOmLU2C2grWFlbQilatbBOKw-F91bqMJdwr9slnIu6sUbVtYDKtMppKaC0phWNNqLV1kBtYLtUUIZvJ2ro1OL4GtRv6ktLew0uKlF7dXPqA_D5_PQxfo2m7y-T8WgaSUIZi3iGCooLVBAVo5TTjBLFBCpSJoXEtKIJEuEGyhKOGSdllZFSMFRJKVkcF5IMwH3n3Ti73Snf5iu7cyaszGOWYcp4gtNAPXSUdNZ7p6p843Qj3CHHKD-mmx_TzX_SDfDdSbkrGlX-ob9xBgB3wF7X6vCPKp9N5qNO-g1qyoXN</recordid><startdate>202302</startdate><enddate>202302</enddate><creator>Godínez‐Oviedo, Angélica</creator><creator>Sampedro, Fernando</creator><creator>Bowman, John P.</creator><creator>Garcés‐Vega, Francisco J.</creator><creator>Hernández‐Iturriaga, Montserrat</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7U7</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>JQ2</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3512-4356</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3313-5433</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202302</creationdate><title>Risk ranking of food categories associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the central region of Mexico</title><author>Godínez‐Oviedo, Angélica ; Sampedro, Fernando ; Bowman, John P. ; Garcés‐Vega, Francisco J. ; Hernández‐Iturriaga, Montserrat</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3577-980b51b0b3e20695853e7a0b67cac15f540a83957491793df83da70fccc722bc3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2023</creationdate><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Attribution</topic><topic>Beef</topic><topic>Cattle</topic><topic>Chickens</topic><topic>Contamination</topic><topic>Decision analysis</topic><topic>Food</topic><topic>Food consumption</topic><topic>Food contamination</topic><topic>Food products</topic><topic>food, MCDA</topic><topic>Foodborne diseases</topic><topic>Fruit</topic><topic>Fruits</topic><topic>Mexico</topic><topic>Multiple criterion</topic><topic>Nuts</topic><topic>Ranking</topic><topic>Ratings & rankings</topic><topic>Risk</topic><topic>Risk assessment</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>Salmonella</topic><topic>Salmonella enterica</topic><topic>Salmonella enterica, Mexico, risk ranking</topic><topic>Seeds</topic><topic>Surveillance systems</topic><topic>Weighting</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Godínez‐Oviedo, Angélica</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sampedro, Fernando</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bowman, John P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Garcés‐Vega, Francisco J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hernández‐Iturriaga, Montserrat</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Toxicology Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>ProQuest Computer Science Collection</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Risk analysis</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Godínez‐Oviedo, Angélica</au><au>Sampedro, Fernando</au><au>Bowman, John P.</au><au>Garcés‐Vega, Francisco J.</au><au>Hernández‐Iturriaga, Montserrat</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Risk ranking of food categories associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the central region of Mexico</atitle><jtitle>Risk analysis</jtitle><addtitle>Risk Anal</addtitle><date>2023-02</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>43</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>308</spage><epage>323</epage><pages>308-323</pages><issn>0272-4332</issn><eissn>1539-6924</eissn><abstract>To prevent and control foodborne diseases, there is a fundamental need to identify the foods that are most likely to cause illness. The goal of this study was to rank 25 commonly consumed food products associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the Central Region of Mexico. A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework was developed to obtain an S. enterica risk score for each food product based on four criteria: probability of exposure to S. enterica through domestic food consumption (Se); S. enterica growth potential during home storage (Sg); per capita consumption (Pcc); and food attribution of S. enterica outbreak (So). Risk scores were calculated by the equation Se*W1+Sg*W2+Pcc*W3+So*W4, where each criterion was assigned a normalized value (1–5) and the relative weights (W) were defined by 22 experts’ opinion. Se had the largest effect on the risk score being the criterion with the highest weight (35%; IC95% 20%–60%), followed by So (24%; 5%–50%), Sg (23%; 10%–40%), and Pcc (18%; 10%–35%). The results identified chicken (4.4 ± 0.6), pork (4.2 ± 0.6), and beef (4.2 ± 0.5) as the highest risk foods, followed by seed fruits (3.6 ± 0.5), tropical fruits (3.4 ± 0.4), and dried fruits and nuts (3.4 ± 0.5), while the food products with the lowest risk were yogurt (2.1 ± 0.3), chorizo (2.1 ± 0.4), and cream (2.0 ± 0.3). Approaches with expert‐based weighting and equal weighting showed good correlation (R2 = 0.96) and did not show significant differences among the ranking order in the top 20 tier. This study can help risk managers select interventions and develop targeted surveillance programs against S. enterica in high‐risk food products.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><pmid>35383989</pmid><doi>10.1111/risa.13907</doi><tpages>16</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3512-4356</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3313-5433</orcidid></addata></record> |
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subjects | Animals Attribution Beef Cattle Chickens Contamination Decision analysis Food Food consumption Food contamination Food products food, MCDA Foodborne diseases Fruit Fruits Mexico Multiple criterion Nuts Ranking Ratings & rankings Risk Risk assessment Risk Factors Salmonella Salmonella enterica Salmonella enterica, Mexico, risk ranking Seeds Surveillance systems Weighting |
title | Risk ranking of food categories associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the central region of Mexico |
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