Earlier green-up and senescence of temperate United States rangelands under future climate
Climate and vegetation phenology are closely linked, and climate change is already impacting phenology in many systems. These impacts are expected to progress in the future. We sought to forecast future shifts in rangeland growing season timing due to climate change, and interpret their importance f...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Modeling earth systems and environment 2022-11, Vol.8 (4), p.5389-5405 |
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| description | Climate and vegetation phenology are closely linked, and climate change is already impacting phenology in many systems. These impacts are expected to progress in the future. We sought to forecast future shifts in rangeland growing season timing due to climate change, and interpret their importance for land management and ecosystem function. We trained a model on remotely sensed land surface phenology and climate data collected from 2001 to 2014 in temperate United States rangelands. We used this model to forecast annual growing season start dates, end dates, and season length through 2099 among six general circulation models and under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Growing season start was projected to shift earlier throughout our study area. In 2090–2099, start of season advanced by an average of 10 (RCP 4.5) to 17 (RCP 8.5) days. End of season also advanced by 12 (RCP 4.5) to 24 (RCP 8.5) days, but with greater heterogeneity. Start and end of season change mainly offset one another, so growing season length changes were lesser (2 days in RCP 4.5, and 7 in RCP 8.5). Some mountainous areas experienced both earlier start of season and later end of season, lengthening their growing season. Earlier phenology in rangelands would force adaptation in grazing and impact ecosystem function. Mountainous areas with earlier start and later end of season may become more viable for grazing, but most areas may experience slightly shortened growing seasons. Autumn phenology warrants greater research, and our finding of earlier autumn senescence contradicts some prior research. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s40808-022-01389-4 |
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These impacts are expected to progress in the future. We sought to forecast future shifts in rangeland growing season timing due to climate change, and interpret their importance for land management and ecosystem function. We trained a model on remotely sensed land surface phenology and climate data collected from 2001 to 2014 in temperate United States rangelands. We used this model to forecast annual growing season start dates, end dates, and season length through 2099 among six general circulation models and under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Growing season start was projected to shift earlier throughout our study area. In 2090–2099, start of season advanced by an average of 10 (RCP 4.5) to 17 (RCP 8.5) days. End of season also advanced by 12 (RCP 4.5) to 24 (RCP 8.5) days, but with greater heterogeneity. Start and end of season change mainly offset one another, so growing season length changes were lesser (2 days in RCP 4.5, and 7 in RCP 8.5). Some mountainous areas experienced both earlier start of season and later end of season, lengthening their growing season. Earlier phenology in rangelands would force adaptation in grazing and impact ecosystem function. Mountainous areas with earlier start and later end of season may become more viable for grazing, but most areas may experience slightly shortened growing seasons. Autumn phenology warrants greater research, and our finding of earlier autumn senescence contradicts some prior research.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2363-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2363-6211</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s40808-022-01389-4</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cham: Springer International Publishing</publisher><subject>Autumn ; Chemistry and Earth Sciences ; Climate change ; Climatic data ; Computer Science ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Earth System Sciences ; Ecological function ; Ecosystems ; Environment ; Environmental impact ; General circulation models ; Grazing ; Growing season ; Heterogeneity ; Land management ; Math. 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Earth Syst. Environ</addtitle><description>Climate and vegetation phenology are closely linked, and climate change is already impacting phenology in many systems. These impacts are expected to progress in the future. We sought to forecast future shifts in rangeland growing season timing due to climate change, and interpret their importance for land management and ecosystem function. We trained a model on remotely sensed land surface phenology and climate data collected from 2001 to 2014 in temperate United States rangelands. We used this model to forecast annual growing season start dates, end dates, and season length through 2099 among six general circulation models and under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Growing season start was projected to shift earlier throughout our study area. In 2090–2099, start of season advanced by an average of 10 (RCP 4.5) to 17 (RCP 8.5) days. End of season also advanced by 12 (RCP 4.5) to 24 (RCP 8.5) days, but with greater heterogeneity. Start and end of season change mainly offset one another, so growing season length changes were lesser (2 days in RCP 4.5, and 7 in RCP 8.5). Some mountainous areas experienced both earlier start of season and later end of season, lengthening their growing season. Earlier phenology in rangelands would force adaptation in grazing and impact ecosystem function. Mountainous areas with earlier start and later end of season may become more viable for grazing, but most areas may experience slightly shortened growing seasons. 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Appl. in Environmental Science</subject><subject>Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Mountain regions</subject><subject>Mountainous areas</subject><subject>Mountains</subject><subject>Original Article</subject><subject>Phenology</subject><subject>Physics</subject><subject>Rangelands</subject><subject>Remote sensing</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Senescence</subject><subject>Statistics for Engineering</subject><issn>2363-6203</issn><issn>2363-6211</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kE1LAzEQhoMoWGr_gKeA52i-NtkcpdQPKHjQXryENJktLdvsmuwe_PemruhNGJgZeOadmReha0ZvGaX6Lkta05pQzgllojZEnqEZF0oQxRk7_62puESLnA-UUqa4UsbM0PvKpXYPCe8SQCRjj10MOEOE7CF6wF2DBzj2kNwAeBP3AwT8OpQm4-TiDtrCZzzGUDSacRgTYN_ujwW4QheNazMsfvIcbR5Wb8snsn55fF7er4kvZw1EUO1EEJUrUUlf08AVC7XwgSq9FTVw1WhpnDTaVN4H3QRQMoSKbY3bMinm6GbS7VP3MUIe7KEbUywrLdfa8FpyZgrFJ8qnLucEje1TOTN9WkbtyUY72WiLjfbbRnuSFtNQLnB5Nv1J_zP1BWYBdXE</recordid><startdate>20221101</startdate><enddate>20221101</enddate><creator>Zimmer, Scott N.</creator><creator>Reeves, Matthew C.</creator><creator>St. Peter, Joseph R.</creator><creator>Hanberry, Brice B.</creator><general>Springer International Publishing</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20221101</creationdate><title>Earlier green-up and senescence of temperate United States rangelands under future climate</title><author>Zimmer, Scott N. ; Reeves, Matthew C. ; St. Peter, Joseph R. ; Hanberry, Brice B.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c363t-307a3d35a35a54c80d261d83cd067b38e26f749a49795ccd7fde64dd51b9ab143</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Autumn</topic><topic>Chemistry and Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climatic data</topic><topic>Computer Science</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Earth System Sciences</topic><topic>Ecological function</topic><topic>Ecosystems</topic><topic>Environment</topic><topic>Environmental impact</topic><topic>General circulation models</topic><topic>Grazing</topic><topic>Growing season</topic><topic>Heterogeneity</topic><topic>Land management</topic><topic>Math. Appl. in Environmental Science</topic><topic>Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Mountain regions</topic><topic>Mountainous areas</topic><topic>Mountains</topic><topic>Original Article</topic><topic>Phenology</topic><topic>Physics</topic><topic>Rangelands</topic><topic>Remote sensing</topic><topic>Seasons</topic><topic>Senescence</topic><topic>Statistics for Engineering</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Zimmer, Scott N.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reeves, Matthew C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>St. Peter, Joseph R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hanberry, Brice B.</creatorcontrib><collection>Springer Nature OA Free Journals</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><jtitle>Modeling earth systems and environment</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Zimmer, Scott N.</au><au>Reeves, Matthew C.</au><au>St. Peter, Joseph R.</au><au>Hanberry, Brice B.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Earlier green-up and senescence of temperate United States rangelands under future climate</atitle><jtitle>Modeling earth systems and environment</jtitle><stitle>Model. 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In 2090–2099, start of season advanced by an average of 10 (RCP 4.5) to 17 (RCP 8.5) days. End of season also advanced by 12 (RCP 4.5) to 24 (RCP 8.5) days, but with greater heterogeneity. Start and end of season change mainly offset one another, so growing season length changes were lesser (2 days in RCP 4.5, and 7 in RCP 8.5). Some mountainous areas experienced both earlier start of season and later end of season, lengthening their growing season. Earlier phenology in rangelands would force adaptation in grazing and impact ecosystem function. Mountainous areas with earlier start and later end of season may become more viable for grazing, but most areas may experience slightly shortened growing seasons. 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| subjects | Autumn Chemistry and Earth Sciences Climate change Climatic data Computer Science Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth System Sciences Ecological function Ecosystems Environment Environmental impact General circulation models Grazing Growing season Heterogeneity Land management Math. Appl. in Environmental Science Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences Mathematical models Mountain regions Mountainous areas Mountains Original Article Phenology Physics Rangelands Remote sensing Seasons Senescence Statistics for Engineering |
| title | Earlier green-up and senescence of temperate United States rangelands under future climate |
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