Carbon Neutrality in Shanxi Province: Scenario Simulation Based on LEAP and CA-Markov Models

In the context of global climate governance and China’s carbon neutrality target, Shanxi Province, one of China’s major energy exporting regions, is under high pressure to achieve carbon neutrality. This paper sets up three carbon source scenarios and three carbon sink scenarios based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) and CA-Markov models to simulate the future change in carbon source and carbon sink of Shanxi from 2020 to 2060; it analyzes the achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets for each source–sink scenario. The results show that: (1) The total energy consumption and CO2 emissions have increased significantly, from 2000 to 2020, especially in heavy industry; (2) The CO2 emissions are predicted to peak at 381.6 Mt, 294.1 Mt and 282.7 Mt in 2040 (baseline scenario), 2030 (policy scenario), and 2025 (carbon neutrality scenario), respectively. The achievement of the carbon neutrality mainly depends on the reduction in CO2 emissions; (3) If Shanxi Province strives to reach the energy intensity of developed countries by 2060, with 80% of non-fossil energy generation, it has the potential to achieve the carbon neutrality target; (4) The popularization of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology will significantly accelerate the achievement of Shanxi Province’s carbon neutrality target.