Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022
On 3 February 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. This study examines the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from...
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| description | On 3 February 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. This study examines the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Working closely with the Starlink team, the thermospheric densities along the satellite orbits were estimated and the neutral density increase leading to the satellite loss was investigated. Simulation results suggest that during the geomagnetic storm, pre‐launch Monte Carlo analyses performed by the Starlink team using empirical neutral density inputs from NRLMSISE‐00 tended to underestimate the impact relative to predictions from the operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model. The numerical simulation indicated this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm was sufficient to create 50%–125% density enhancement at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. With the increasing solar activity of Solar Cycle 25, satellites in low‐Earth orbit are expected to experience an increasing number of thermospheric expansion events. Currently, no alerts and warnings issued by SWPC are focused on satellite users concerned with atmospheric drag and related applications. Thus, during geomagnetic storms, it is crucial to establish suitable alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions to provide users guidance for preventing satellite losses due to drag and to aid in collision avoidance calculations.
Plain Language Summary
SpaceX Starlink lost 38 of 49 satellites after the launch of Group 4‐7 in February 2022 due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. Based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), this study provides a detailed analysis of the space weather conditions and neutral density environment during the event. Simulation results suggest that during this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm, the neutral density enhancement was about 50%–125% increase at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. The operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model demonstrates better performance compared to empirical thermospheric neutral den |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2022SW003193 |
| format | Article |
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Plain Language Summary
SpaceX Starlink lost 38 of 49 satellites after the launch of Group 4‐7 in February 2022 due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. Based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), this study provides a detailed analysis of the space weather conditions and neutral density environment during the event. Simulation results suggest that during this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm, the neutral density enhancement was about 50%–125% increase at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. The operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model demonstrates better performance compared to empirical thermospheric neutral density models, one of which was used by the Starlink team. With an increasing number of satellites in low‐Earth orbit, it becomes crucial for SWPC to establish suitable alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions to provide users guidance for preventing satellite losses due to drag and to aid in collision avoidance calculations.
Key Points
Geomagnetic storms lead to thermosphere expansion and increase satellite drag
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics, a physics‐based model, captures the enhanced neutral density environment responsible for the Starlink satellite loss event
Alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions during geomagnetic storms are critical for satellite drag estimation</description><identifier>ISSN: 1542-7390</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1539-4964</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1542-7390</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2022SW003193</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Artificial satellites ; Atmosphere ; Atmosphere, Upper ; Atmospheric drag ; Atmospheric models ; Collision avoidance ; Collision dynamics ; Commercial space ventures ; Computer simulation ; Density ; Drag ; Earth orbits ; Electrodynamics ; Empirical analysis ; Geomagnetic storms ; Geomagnetism ; Ionosphere ; Ionospheric models ; Ionospheric research ; Magnetic storms ; Mathematical models ; Meteorological research ; Modelling ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Numerical analysis ; Numerical simulations ; Physics ; Plasmasphere ; Satellite constellations ; Satellite observation ; Satellite orbits ; Satellites ; Simulation ; Simulation methods ; Solar activity ; Solar cycle ; Space weather ; space weather forecast ; Storm forecasting ; Storms ; thermosphere expansion and satellite drag ; Thermospheric densities ; Weather conditions ; Weather forecasting</subject><ispartof>Space Weather, 2022-11, Vol.20 (11), p.n/a</ispartof><rights>2022. The Authors. Space Weather published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2022 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.</rights><rights>2022. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4490-c2647ad39d44bf3d3f2f88b10462b2fda556f8d2010a5b33cf2b68187c21ce173</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4490-c2647ad39d44bf3d3f2f88b10462b2fda556f8d2010a5b33cf2b68187c21ce173</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-8123-4244 ; 0000-0002-3020-3541 ; 0000-0002-5364-6505</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029%2F2022SW003193$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029%2F2022SW003193$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,11541,27901,27902,45550,45551,46027,46451</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Fang, Tzu‐Wei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kubaryk, Adam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Goldstein, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Zhuxiao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fuller‐Rowell, Tim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Millward, George</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Singer, Howard J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Steenburgh, Robert</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Westerman, Solomon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Babcock, Erik</creatorcontrib><title>Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022</title><title>Space Weather</title><description>On 3 February 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. This study examines the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Working closely with the Starlink team, the thermospheric densities along the satellite orbits were estimated and the neutral density increase leading to the satellite loss was investigated. Simulation results suggest that during the geomagnetic storm, pre‐launch Monte Carlo analyses performed by the Starlink team using empirical neutral density inputs from NRLMSISE‐00 tended to underestimate the impact relative to predictions from the operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model. The numerical simulation indicated this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm was sufficient to create 50%–125% density enhancement at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. With the increasing solar activity of Solar Cycle 25, satellites in low‐Earth orbit are expected to experience an increasing number of thermospheric expansion events. Currently, no alerts and warnings issued by SWPC are focused on satellite users concerned with atmospheric drag and related applications. Thus, during geomagnetic storms, it is crucial to establish suitable alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions to provide users guidance for preventing satellite losses due to drag and to aid in collision avoidance calculations.
Plain Language Summary
SpaceX Starlink lost 38 of 49 satellites after the launch of Group 4‐7 in February 2022 due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. Based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), this study provides a detailed analysis of the space weather conditions and neutral density environment during the event. Simulation results suggest that during this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm, the neutral density enhancement was about 50%–125% increase at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. The operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model demonstrates better performance compared to empirical thermospheric neutral density models, one of which was used by the Starlink team. With an increasing number of satellites in low‐Earth orbit, it becomes crucial for SWPC to establish suitable alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions to provide users guidance for preventing satellite losses due to drag and to aid in collision avoidance calculations.
Key Points
Geomagnetic storms lead to thermosphere expansion and increase satellite drag
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics, a physics‐based model, captures the enhanced neutral density environment responsible for the Starlink satellite loss event
Alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions during geomagnetic storms are critical for satellite drag estimation</description><subject>Artificial satellites</subject><subject>Atmosphere</subject><subject>Atmosphere, Upper</subject><subject>Atmospheric drag</subject><subject>Atmospheric models</subject><subject>Collision avoidance</subject><subject>Collision dynamics</subject><subject>Commercial space ventures</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Density</subject><subject>Drag</subject><subject>Earth orbits</subject><subject>Electrodynamics</subject><subject>Empirical analysis</subject><subject>Geomagnetic storms</subject><subject>Geomagnetism</subject><subject>Ionosphere</subject><subject>Ionospheric models</subject><subject>Ionospheric research</subject><subject>Magnetic storms</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Meteorological research</subject><subject>Modelling</subject><subject>Monte Carlo simulation</subject><subject>Numerical analysis</subject><subject>Numerical simulations</subject><subject>Physics</subject><subject>Plasmasphere</subject><subject>Satellite constellations</subject><subject>Satellite observation</subject><subject>Satellite orbits</subject><subject>Satellites</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Simulation methods</subject><subject>Solar activity</subject><subject>Solar cycle</subject><subject>Space weather</subject><subject>space weather forecast</subject><subject>Storm forecasting</subject><subject>Storms</subject><subject>thermosphere expansion and satellite drag</subject><subject>Thermospheric densities</subject><subject>Weather conditions</subject><subject>Weather forecasting</subject><issn>1542-7390</issn><issn>1539-4964</issn><issn>1542-7390</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kU9rFDEYh4MoWFdvfoCAV7cmb5JJ5ljqVgsLHqay3kL-rllnkzUzq_Tbm3ZEepIcEn48efjxvgi9peSSEug_AAEYdoQw2rNn6IIKDmvJevL8yfslejVNB0KAC-AX6G44GRfwLpj5e6h4k3-lWvIx5Bl_PNeU97jl-BH6hofZ1DHlH3gwcxjHNAe8LdOEU8Y3wdazqff4ocNr9CKacQpv_t4r9PVmc3f9eb398un2-mq7dpz3ZO2g49J41nvObWSeRYhKWUp4BxaiN0J0UXkglBhhGXMRbKeokg6oC1SyFbpdvL6Ygz7VdGwNdDFJPwal7rWpc3Jj0IH2hoMUvVeWW88VCdFKULRjhMdgmuvd4jrV8vMcplkfyrnmVl-D5ETQTgrRqMuF2psmTTmWuRrXjg_H5EoOMbX8SnYUhKJNvkLvlw-utknVEP_VpEQ_LE0_XVrDYcF_N8_9f1k97DZAOSXsD-o9lTk</recordid><startdate>202211</startdate><enddate>202211</enddate><creator>Fang, Tzu‐Wei</creator><creator>Kubaryk, Adam</creator><creator>Goldstein, David</creator><creator>Li, Zhuxiao</creator><creator>Fuller‐Rowell, Tim</creator><creator>Millward, George</creator><creator>Singer, Howard J.</creator><creator>Steenburgh, Robert</creator><creator>Westerman, Solomon</creator><creator>Babcock, Erik</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>Wiley</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>IAO</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8123-4244</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3020-3541</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5364-6505</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202211</creationdate><title>Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022</title><author>Fang, Tzu‐Wei ; Kubaryk, Adam ; Goldstein, David ; Li, Zhuxiao ; Fuller‐Rowell, Tim ; Millward, George ; Singer, Howard J. ; Steenburgh, Robert ; Westerman, Solomon ; Babcock, Erik</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c4490-c2647ad39d44bf3d3f2f88b10462b2fda556f8d2010a5b33cf2b68187c21ce173</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Artificial satellites</topic><topic>Atmosphere</topic><topic>Atmosphere, Upper</topic><topic>Atmospheric drag</topic><topic>Atmospheric models</topic><topic>Collision avoidance</topic><topic>Collision dynamics</topic><topic>Commercial space ventures</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Density</topic><topic>Drag</topic><topic>Earth orbits</topic><topic>Electrodynamics</topic><topic>Empirical analysis</topic><topic>Geomagnetic storms</topic><topic>Geomagnetism</topic><topic>Ionosphere</topic><topic>Ionospheric models</topic><topic>Ionospheric research</topic><topic>Magnetic storms</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Meteorological research</topic><topic>Modelling</topic><topic>Monte Carlo simulation</topic><topic>Numerical analysis</topic><topic>Numerical simulations</topic><topic>Physics</topic><topic>Plasmasphere</topic><topic>Satellite constellations</topic><topic>Satellite observation</topic><topic>Satellite orbits</topic><topic>Satellites</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Simulation methods</topic><topic>Solar activity</topic><topic>Solar cycle</topic><topic>Space weather</topic><topic>space weather forecast</topic><topic>Storm forecasting</topic><topic>Storms</topic><topic>thermosphere expansion and satellite drag</topic><topic>Thermospheric densities</topic><topic>Weather conditions</topic><topic>Weather forecasting</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Fang, Tzu‐Wei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kubaryk, Adam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Goldstein, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Zhuxiao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fuller‐Rowell, Tim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Millward, George</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Singer, Howard J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Steenburgh, Robert</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Westerman, Solomon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Babcock, Erik</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley Online Library Open Access</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale Academic OneFile</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>Space Weather</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Fang, Tzu‐Wei</au><au>Kubaryk, Adam</au><au>Goldstein, David</au><au>Li, Zhuxiao</au><au>Fuller‐Rowell, Tim</au><au>Millward, George</au><au>Singer, Howard J.</au><au>Steenburgh, Robert</au><au>Westerman, Solomon</au><au>Babcock, Erik</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022</atitle><jtitle>Space Weather</jtitle><date>2022-11</date><risdate>2022</risdate><volume>20</volume><issue>11</issue><epage>n/a</epage><issn>1542-7390</issn><issn>1539-4964</issn><eissn>1542-7390</eissn><abstract>On 3 February 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. This study examines the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Working closely with the Starlink team, the thermospheric densities along the satellite orbits were estimated and the neutral density increase leading to the satellite loss was investigated. Simulation results suggest that during the geomagnetic storm, pre‐launch Monte Carlo analyses performed by the Starlink team using empirical neutral density inputs from NRLMSISE‐00 tended to underestimate the impact relative to predictions from the operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model. The numerical simulation indicated this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm was sufficient to create 50%–125% density enhancement at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. With the increasing solar activity of Solar Cycle 25, satellites in low‐Earth orbit are expected to experience an increasing number of thermospheric expansion events. Currently, no alerts and warnings issued by SWPC are focused on satellite users concerned with atmospheric drag and related applications. Thus, during geomagnetic storms, it is crucial to establish suitable alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions to provide users guidance for preventing satellite losses due to drag and to aid in collision avoidance calculations.
Plain Language Summary
SpaceX Starlink lost 38 of 49 satellites after the launch of Group 4‐7 in February 2022 due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. Based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), this study provides a detailed analysis of the space weather conditions and neutral density environment during the event. Simulation results suggest that during this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm, the neutral density enhancement was about 50%–125% increase at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. The operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model demonstrates better performance compared to empirical thermospheric neutral density models, one of which was used by the Starlink team. With an increasing number of satellites in low‐Earth orbit, it becomes crucial for SWPC to establish suitable alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions to provide users guidance for preventing satellite losses due to drag and to aid in collision avoidance calculations.
Key Points
Geomagnetic storms lead to thermosphere expansion and increase satellite drag
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics, a physics‐based model, captures the enhanced neutral density environment responsible for the Starlink satellite loss event
Alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions during geomagnetic storms are critical for satellite drag estimation</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1029/2022SW003193</doi><tpages>14</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8123-4244</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3020-3541</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5364-6505</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Artificial satellites Atmosphere Atmosphere, Upper Atmospheric drag Atmospheric models Collision avoidance Collision dynamics Commercial space ventures Computer simulation Density Drag Earth orbits Electrodynamics Empirical analysis Geomagnetic storms Geomagnetism Ionosphere Ionospheric models Ionospheric research Magnetic storms Mathematical models Meteorological research Modelling Monte Carlo simulation Numerical analysis Numerical simulations Physics Plasmasphere Satellite constellations Satellite observation Satellite orbits Satellites Simulation Simulation methods Solar activity Solar cycle Space weather space weather forecast Storm forecasting Storms thermosphere expansion and satellite drag Thermospheric densities Weather conditions Weather forecasting |
| title | Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022 |
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